MLB Picks

Mariners and Orioles open the slate with Julio Rodríguez in focus, backing his over on total bases against Trevor Rogers. Rodríguez has been elite against lefties this season, posting a 173 wRC+, .987 OPS, 50% hard-hit rate, and 12.5% barrel rate. Over his last 30 plate appearances versus southpaws, he’s hit .286 with a .571 SLG and .904 OPS while continuing to generate loud contact. He also enters his 52nd elite rating with strong historical production in that split. Rogers has struggled with right-handed bats, allowing heavy hard contact and elevated extra-base damage. The matchup sets up well for Rodríguez.

We're backing NO RUNS in the First Inning in Game 2 between the Red Sox and Rays. Payton Tolle has been dominant, allowing just 2 runs through 8 games, both on solo homers, while giving up very little hard contact. Nick Martinez has been just as reliable early, carrying a 0.75 first-inning ERA and allowing only one first-inning run all season. Offensively, Tampa Bay's biggest threats are Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero against the left-handed Tolle, but the pitching advantage outweighs the concern. With both starters excelling early, this matchup sets up well for a scoreless opening frame.

My eyes are on the Over here, as both lineups possess a viable path to production despite the absence of Judge. Slade Cecconi’s 4.47 xERA and mediocre 18.4% strikeout rate suggest the Yankees will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play and manufacture traffic on the basepaths. On the other side, Cleveland can repeat their recent success against Cole by sticking to their established blueprint. I’m comfortable taking the Over up to 9 +100.

Are the vibes finally turning around for the Detroit Tigers after taking five of six games from the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners? Troy Melton gets the start for Detroit, and I love this matchup for him against the Minnesota Twins. Melton has posted a 1.74 ERA this season, and his four-seam fastball has been his best weapon. He likes to work at the top of the strike zone, which creates problems for several hitters in the middle of the Twins lineup, including Josh Bell and Kody Clemens, who prefer to attack pitches lower in the zone to generate launch angle. The Tigers are trading as -124 favorites, but I make them closer to -150 in this spot. That’s enough value for me to hit the button on Melton and company.

Shohei Ohtani presents strong value at +111 to clear over 1.5 total bases in a favorable matchup against Paul Skenes and the Pirates. His road production in elite rated spots has been consistently elite, with strong hit rates, extra-base power, and a high home run frequency. Recent form against right-handed pitching shows a .423 average, strong slugging, and elite hard contact, supported by excellent coverage of opposing pitch mixes. Even if Skenes limits early damage, Pittsburgh’s bullpen sets up well for left-handed power bats. At this price, the combination of profile, form, and matchup makes Ohtani highly appealing tonight.

Fedde has allowed a .322 average and .400 wOBA over his last five starts, the worst marks among any pitcher on today’s slate. Holmes has conceded multiple runs against all five opponents who rank Top-20 in OPS vs. righties, and the Sox sit ninth. Expect plenty of offense. Playable to -130.

Kauffman Stadium might not be the best home run park in baseball, but 15-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures pushing 90 degrees create a great environment for dingers today. The Rangers have the better side of the matchup against Stephen Kolek, who generates plenty of groundballs, but when hitters do get the ball in the air against him, it tends to leave the yard. He's also making his first start after returning from the family medical emergency list. Josh Jung at +500 or better is my favorite way to attack this spot. He ranks among the team's Top 3 hitters in power metrics and has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 18 games while posting a .930 OPS. He also just faced Kansas City three series ago and responded with three extra-base hits while slugging .786 during the matchup. The Royals bullpen adds to the appeal, ranking in the bottom third of baseball in HR/9.

Ian Happ enters tonight’s Coors Field matchup in elite form, making his over total bases prop one of the stronger looks on the slate. The Cubs switch-hitter is batting .414 with a 1.034 slugging percentage and 1.467 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, backed by strong hard contact and barrel rates. He draws a vulnerable Tomoyuki Sugano, who has struggled with command, contact suppression, and has been hit hard by lefties in recent outings. In the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field, Happ’s profile, recent production, and matchup all align for a prime offensive breakout spot tonight.

Yes, the elevation is a concern, and I watched the offensive explosion last night just like everyone else. That said, I think the market is overreacting, creating value on a scoreless first inning at +150. Milwaukee's Robert Gasser has limited hard contact early this season, holding opponents to a .192 xBA and .335 xSLG. On the other side, J.T. Ginn has been outstanding, posting a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.64 first-inning ERA this season. The ballpark will scare people away, but good pitching still wins innings. At this price, the value is too good to ignore.