MLB Picks

Boston starter Sonny Gray has been inconsistent dating back to the midway point of last season. The Brewers are fourth in the majors in OPS (.782) and third in runs per game (6.36). They are also very familiar with Gray's stuff since he spent most of his career in the NL Central. Meanwhile, Shane Drohan makes his MLB debut for Milwaukee. Drohan has good swing-and-miss stuff but struggles with command. There's a reason Boston traded him away in the offseason and he was just the No. 25 ranked prospect in the Brewers system on MLB pipeline. The Red Sox are 10th in the majors in barrel rate and sixth in exit velocity, indicating positive regression.

Sonny Gray was roughed up in his Red Sox debut but bounced back with a solid start last week. Gray had a 4.28 ERA last year but his FIP was much better at 3.39. I trust him more than southpaw Shane Drohan who makes his MLB debut for Milwaukee. Drohan has good swing-and-miss stuff but struggles with command and there's a reason Boston traded him away in the offseason. Boston has struggled with strikeouts this season but is hitting well against lefties (.256 BA). The Red Sox are also 10th in the majors in barrel rate and sixth in exit velocity, indicating positive regression. Meanwhile, the Brewers will be without one of their top hitters in Brice Turang. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for overall RHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest in the majors.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for overall RHB offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest in the majors.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The Texas Rangers are listed as +119 underdogs against Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners, and I’m definitely hitting that number—I believe the Rangers should be closer to -115 favorites in this spot. Mackenzie Gore has adjusted his release point since joining Texas, making it even more difficult for left-handed hitters to square him up. With Brendan Donovan setting the table at the top of the lineup and Josh Naylor hitting in the middle—both left-handed bats—it’s fair to question how Seattle generates offense, especially with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez struggling at the plate as their primary right-handed threats. On the other side, Corey Seager and Jake Burger both profile well against Woo’s high-velocity, high-spin four-seam fastball, giving Texas a clear edge in this matchup.

Globe Life Field ranks as the #30 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest CF dimensions among all stadiums.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will bat from his worse side (0) today against MacKenzie Gore. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Texas's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

George Springer is an expert fastball hitter and can square Shohei Ohtani's four-seamer up to send it over the fence.

George Springer's success against Shohei Ohtani can be attributed to his ability to hit the four-seam fastball. The Blue Jays leadoff hitter had a .746 xSLG against the pitch in 2025, and it will lead to another multi-base affair today.

He’s on a heater! Mickey Moniak started the season on the injured list, but since returning, he’s hit three home runs in just 18 at-bats. Keep an eye on him in this Rockies lineup at Coors Field—he could be in for a big season. His home run prop is listed at +325, and I’m hitting that number—I price it closer to +290 for him to go deep on Wednesday. The wind should also help, pushing the ball toward his pull side at Coors Field. Christian Javier’s four-seam fastball tends to generate a lot of fly balls, and Moniak has already shown this week that he’s made adjustments to his swing mechanics, improving his launch angle when he barrels the ball.

There aren’t many ballparks where the weather boosts home run props on Wednesday's slate, but Coors Field is one of them. It’s expected to be sunny, 72 degrees, with the wind blowing from left to right field at 14 mph—an ideal setup for a left-handed hitter like Yordan Alvarez, as it can help carry the ball toward his pull side. At +220, the price might look short, but I actually think it should be even shorter—I have it closer to +190, which is why I’m hitting the button. The real question is: what can Michael Lorenzen realistically throw in the zone at altitude to get Alvarez out?

Philadelphia veteran Aaron Nola is throwing it back with two solid showings in the World Baseball Classic parlaying into a respectable start to the 2026 season (3.18 ERA and 2.42 xFIP). And, he’ll face a slumping San Fran lineup averaging just 3.0 runs per game while ranking last in wOBA against righties. Giants starter Tyler Mahle has also been squared up for a 17.9 barrel percentage and 42.9% hard-hit rate through two starts, so with the Philly lineup checking in sixth in wOBA against right-handed arms, I’m expecting the Phillies to break out at the dish after being blanked Tuesday.

Oracle Park is a pitcher-friendly stadium, and I don’t expect Nola to allow many runs here. Plus, even when the Giants get to the Philadelphia bullpen, that doesn’t mean they’re going to magically wake up. San Francisco is struggling at the dish, ranking 29th in runs scored, 29th in OBP, and 28th in slugging.

Only Mike Trout projects for a better chance to go yard today in Anaheim, and with Jo Adell 100 points longer, his +470 home run price is the best +EV HR prop on the board, per the Covers projections powered by THE BAT. In fact, THE BAT is projecting for starters Reid Detmers and Grant Holmes to both go over their 2.5 earned run totals. Adell is coming off a very quiet 37-HR campaign in 2025, and the outfielder is starting to see the ball well of late, going 4-for-8 in this series vs. the Atlanta Braves with a longball. The Braves also used their five best high-leverage arms last night and could need some B-arms today. That's key as their bullpen has a 0.86 ERA through 41+ innings this year, which is unsustainable. This is the best +EV home run prop on a slate with only a handful of players showing value.

I’m a loyal guy, so when Ozzie Albies goes yard and cashes a +520 dinger yesterday and is fifty points longer today in a good hitting setting, I’m running it back. The switch-hitter always gets a bump in the order vs. lefties and will hit out of the three hole in the Atlanta Braves lineup. His slugging vs. lefties is 100 points better since 2024. He is facing Reid Detmers, who has been overworked early, throwing 199 pitches in two starts and coming off a 104-pitch outing. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 innings since 2023. Albies has also proven he can get to a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has been punching above its weight early, with some metrics indicating some runs are coming. Ultimately, with low temperatures across the board and some getaway spots, this +570 price in one of the best-hitting settings stands out as a fair +500.

Both starters tonight have struggled to start the season, and the offenses should be able to do enough to get to this low total. Peterson has a 4.66 ERA over 9.2 innings of work in his first two starts this season, while Nelson has had an even rougher start, allowing four homers and putting up a 5.79 ERA in his first two outings. 

The Mets are of to a fast start this season and have won four straight games heading into Wednesday’s contest. New arrival Luis Robert Jr. (.882 OPS) and returning starters Francisco Alvarez (1.054 OPS) and Mark Vientos (1.087 OPS) have done enough to keep the offense humming even with Juan Soto now on the IL.

Joe Boyle will "start" for Tampa Bay Rays in today's matchup but will function as an opener and may not go more than a couple framess.. Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joe Boyle is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.. The 4th-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the weakest out of every team in action today.

Moises Ballesteros's batting average ability is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 4th-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Tropicana Field.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 17° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Moises Ballesteros will hold the platoon advantage against Joe Boyle today... and even better, Boyle has a large platoon split.. Moises Ballesteros may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

Caissie is off to a great start hitting .296 with a .947 OPS, with two home runs, nine RBI, and four runs scored.

The Cincinnati Reds are trading as +117 underdogs on the moneyline, and after costing me a unit yesterday against the Marlins—when I backed Miami—I’m switching sides on Wednesday and hoping the Reds return that unit and more. Brady Singer relies on a heavy sinker-slider combination with strong downward movement, which should create problems for a young Marlins lineup that’s focused on elevating the ball. Without the right approach against Singer, Miami is likely to produce a high volume of ground balls. With Ke’Bryan Hayes backing him at third base—one of the best defensive third basemen in the game—Singer should be able to trust his defense and let them do the work. I make the Reds closer to -110 favorites in this spot, rather than +117 underdogs.

I was immediately attracted to this Over, with a projected total of 9.2. The other side presents scoring chances, too. I’ve been consistently down on Will Warren relative to the market, and while I’m expecting him to be “just fine” here tonight which mains the As should be able to do the little amount of scoring required of them to get this Over. 

 

You can pick your own narrative for the ways Severino may struggle tonight. The walk rate of over 20% through two starts isn’t going to continue, but it may persist as a story here, given the circumstances of being at Yankee Stadium against a lineup full of power

Framber Valdez fell apart in the final two months last season but still finished with good overall numbers. He had a sparkling 3.06 ERA with two All-Star appearances over the previous three years. It looks like he's recaptured that form, pitching to a 0.75 ERA through two starts with his new team. He'll shut down a Twins lineup that struggles against lefties. Minnesota's Baily Ober had a brutal 5.10 ERA last season, but his xERA was 4.36. He also looked much better in the previous two years, pitching to a 3.73 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP across 57 starts. With neither team impressing at the dish and cool temperatures in Minnesota tonight, back the Under. 

Despite struggling down the stretch last season, Framber Valdez still finished with an impressive 3.37 FIP. He's looked extremely sharp with his new team, posting a 2.24 FIP through two starts with Detroit. The Twins counter with Bailey Ober who had a 5.10 ERA with an OBA of .275 last year. He's off to another rough season, surrendering three runs in four innings in both of his starts. These teams have been mediocre at the dish but Detroit has the superior lineup on paper and the analytics indicate positive regression. The Tigers are seventh in the majors in xSLG (.411) while the Twins are 27th (.345). Minnesota is also batting just .196 against lefties like Valdez.