MLB Picks

Let’s take advantage of a low total at Wrigley. The wind is forecasted to be blowing in, but not truly gusting, and the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros rank ninth and 10th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road, and Chicago vet Jameson Taillon just allowed five homers and a 41.9% squared-up contact rate in his most recent start.

Sanchez’s red-hot form has dragged down the O/U line, but I’m still taking the Under, which is 8-2 in the Phillies’ last 10 games. Three of Sanchez’s past four outings have delivered six total runs or fewer, and both these teams rank in the bottom third of the majors in batting average. Though Williams is still searching for his best stuff, he only allowed two runs in six innings against the Cincinnati Reds last weekend. Plus, the Guardians’ winning run hasn’t really been fueled by offense. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of their last nine games.

Recent history between these teams points toward another low-scoring game, with six of the last seven meetings cashing the Under. Bassitt has been excellent at home, and Detroit’s lineup is struggling badly offensively. While Flaherty hasn’t pitched well overall, Baltimore’s offense has also been inconsistent, making this matchup look more like a pitching-driven series opener.

Let’s add the best left-handed bat in baseball against a pitcher who allows plenty of fly balls and has been more vulnerable to left-handed hitters. Shohei Ohtani started the year slowly, much like several other WBC participants, but the swing looks fully back after homering last night. He draws another strong indoor matchup today with real home-run upside against Logan Henderson. Ohtani is slugging .926 over his last seven games with seven extra-base hits, and if he can’t snap my HR cold stretch, nobody can. The fair price on this, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT, is +210.

The Royals have scored in the opening inning in just 24% of their games to tie for sixth least in the majors, and Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has surrendered a 1.045 OPS in the first inning after allowing a .645 mark in 2025, so this is a great spot for the righty to flip the early script. Seattle also ranks 29th in wOBA against left-handed starters, and Royals southpaw Noah Cameron has fired a scoreless first frame in six of eight starts with a 2.25 ERA.

The Rangers have scored in the first inning at the eighth-lowest clip in baseball this season, and Los Angeles righty Grayson Rodriguez held the Los Angeles Dodgers off the board in the first in his season debut last time out. Additionally, Texas veteran Jacob deGrom is also eyeing statistical correction in the opening frame. He’s allowed four first-inning homers with a 1.010 OPS, so considering he’s only surrendered 10 total bombs and a .625 OPS overall, I’m expecting his early struggles to subside Friday. The Angels rank 28th in wOBA against righties, after all.

Arizona checks every box tonight against a Rockies team it’s consistently dominated at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been dominant in Arizona with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and now draws a Colorado lineup ranked 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano has to navigate a D-backs offense leading MLB in runs scored over the last week, while Arizona also owns the clear bullpen edge.

This matchup features two pitchers in decent form, especially Davis Martin, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every outing since Opening Day. Trevor McDonald also owns a solid 2.37 ERA, while both offenses have struggled lately. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have also cashed the Under.