Reid Detmers enters Wednesday with one of the best strikeout profiles on the board. The Angels left hander owns a strong Batters-Box rating with elite strikeout and matchup metrics, and he's been dominant lately, posting a strikeout rate above 30% over his last five starts and better than 36% across his last three. Baltimore also sets up well for strikeout props, with several hitters carrying elevated strikeout rates against left handed pitching. The combination of Detmers' recent dominance and the Orioles' swing and miss tendencies creates excellent value at plus money. I would play this prop down to even money.

The Under fits because both starters enter in strong form and New York’s bullpen has been sharp lately. Scott is limiting barrels and homers, while Bibee gives Cleveland stability. Even with the Guardians' bullpen showing risk, the Mets' offense has not been productive enough to score in bunches tonight. 

In the past two weeks, Dane Myers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.. In the past week, Dane Myers's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 91.8 mph to 82.4 mph.. Over the last 14 days, Dane Myers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dane Myers's true offensive talent to be a .299, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .039 deviation between that figure and his actual .338 wOBA.. In notching a 10.900 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Dane Myers has performed in the 17th percentile for power.

CJ Abrams finds himself in one of the better home run spots on Wednesday's slate against Phillies right hander Andrew Painter. Painter has struggled to limit hard contact lately, especially against left handed hitters, who continue to barrel the baseball and produce elite expected numbers against him. Abrams enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and strong arsenal coverage, while his recent production against right handed pitching has been excellent. He's already homered in 25% of his elite rated games this season, and this matchup gives him another opportunity to leave the yard. At the current price, this is one of the stronger value home run plays available.

Will Warren’s Achilles heel is conceding power, and that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the St. Louis Cardinals.

They own a putrid .090 ISO and sit 29th in HR/FB against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

While the Yankees have hit for some power, Andre Pallante’s 96th percentile ground ball rate will help take that out of the equation.

Bet to -130.

Sean Burke was dominant in his last outing, striking out ten Yankees, but this matchup presents a much different challenge. Boston enters Wednesday as one of the hottest offenses in baseball, posting elite run production while consistently limiting strikeouts. The Red Sox have maintained a 126 wRC+ over their last 12 games, and their strikeout rate has dipped below 20% over their last six. Burke has been excellent recently, but facing a disciplined lineup that's swinging the bat this well is a difficult task. I expect Boston to make far more consistent contact tonight, making this a strong spot to back the Red Sox.

The Marlins enter Wednesday with one of the strongest offensive profiles on Batters-Box, featuring four elite-rated hitters and two more with strong ratings. They draw Bryce Elder, who has struggled over his last five starts and continues to allow plenty of hard contact and barrels. The matchup becomes even more favorable with four of Miami's top-rated bats hitting from the left side, where Elder has been especially vulnerable. Miami's offense has also started to wake up after a rough stretch in July, making this an excellent opportunity to back the Fighting Fish. I would play the Marlins down to -110.

When estimating his home run ability, Kody Clemens ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #7 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate.

Paul Skenes has hit a wall, posting a 6.25 ERA across six July starts, and Pittsburgh is just 3-11 over his last 14 outings. His 4.56 road ERA adds to the concern, especially with an ice-cold Pirates offense that's carrying a dreadful .571 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Kyle Harrison has been dominant at home, recording a 1.56 ERA in nine starts.

There are just too many variables pointing toward another short outing from Woo. While the strikeout numbers are still average this season, his career-high 42.5% hard-hit rate is impossible to ignore against an offense as hot as Detroit’s. On the other side, expect the opener in Anderson to last a maximum of two frames before turning the ball over to the bullpen - that’s just far too many innings to cover.

While Bratt has mostly been hit around this season, he did show some promise in his last start against the Cleveland Guardians, going five innings of one-run baseball. The MLB trends are on our side on this one, too — the Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last four home games, and it's also hitting in four of the last five Padres’ road games.

 

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Luis Castillo's White Sox debut could be a rough one, as Red Sox hitters own a .338/.397/.584 slash line against the veteran right-hander. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez enters this matchup with an average exit velocity that ranks in the 91st percentile at Baseball Savant, so take Boston to stay hot at Fenway. Playable to -180.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.