MLB Picks

Both Miami starter Sandy Alcantara and Pittsburgh righty Braxton Ashcraft have been sensational in this market this season and have combined to pitch 23 scoreless opening frames across 27 starts. Additionally, Alcantara's first-inning numbers (5.14 ERA with a .758 OPS allowed) are skewed because all eight runs he’s surrendered were across just three games. Ashcraft, meanwhile, checks in with an absolutely elite .169 batting average and .414 OPS allowed in the opening frame across his 21 career starts.

Mariners righty Bryce Miller has spun four consecutive scoreless first frames to start his 2026 campaign, and he also held opposing hitters to a modest .601 OPS across 18 opening innings last season. Seattle is in tough against Washington righty Zack Littell, too. He’s also fired four consecutive scoreless opening innings and has held opposing hitters to a lower .479 OPS across nine 2026 starts. Additionally, Littell has settled into a sterling groove with an overall 3.47 FIP across his past seven outings.

Samuel Basallo is a hitter I am backing in the HRR market tonight with added interest in his home run prop given the matchup. The Orioles slugger draws Padres right-hander Griffin Canning, who grades poorly on the slate per Batters-Box and has struggled heavily with left-handed hitters. Over his last 60 lefties faced, Canning has allowed a 61% hard contact rate and 14.6% barrel rate with elevated xSLG and xwOBA. A majority of his pitch mix grades below league average per FanGraphs, while Basallo shows strong arsenal coverage and recent production against right-handed pitching, making this strong spot.

Weathers has been prone to the longball over his last four starts, surrendering seven bombs in that stretch. Kazuma Okamoto’s hitting profile matches up best against Weathers, who uses a four-seamer as his primary pitch.  The Jays slugger barrels the baseball well and puts power into his swings with a 64% hard-hit rate and a .544 slug against the four-seamer this season. 

The Kansas City Royals should be the favorites in this matchup against the Houston Astros, which is why I'm hitting the button on the +101 price. I make the Royals closer to a -115 favorite in this spot. Tatsuya Imai's 6.03 BB/9 is a major concern, and those free passes provide a huge boost for a Royals offense that can sometimes struggle to score runs and generate power. Walks allow Kansas City to create offense through its speed, aggressive baserunning, and contact-oriented approach. The Royals' speed on the bases, led by Bobby Witt Jr., should also put pressure on Imai and potentially force him to lean more heavily on his fastball rather than his secondary pitches. If that happens, it could create opportunities for Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino to sit on fastballs and drive the ball with authority.

Kody Clemens has been swinging a hot bat in recent matchups against right handed pitching, posting elite quality contact numbers over his last 30 at bats, including a 54.2% hard hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and strong .379 average with a 1.262 OPS. He now faces Kyle Leahy, who has struggled to limit damage, especially versus left handed hitters, allowing elevated hard contact and power metrics including a .619 xSLG and .434 xwOBA. Leahy’s arsenal grades below league average overall, while Clemens profiles well against his pitch mix. After an 0 for 4 Thursday, Clemens looks positioned for a bounce back spot.

Yandy Díaz is one of my favorite home run targets on the board tonight. The Rays slugger has been scorching left handed pitching, posting a .400 batting average, .720 slugging percentage, 1.187 OPS, and 221 wRC+ over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. He has also generated a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate during that stretch. Díaz draws Angels left hander Sam Aldegheri, who has surrendered a 61.9% fly-ball rate and 19% line-drive rate to right handed hitters this season. Add in Díaz's elite 94.7% arsenal coverage rating on Batters-Box, and the ingredients are there for a long ball.

San Francisco's offense remains inconsistent despite hot stretches from Bryce Eldridge and Jung Hoo Lee. Chicago scored nine runs in the last game but had managed just nine total across its previous four. With Landen Roupp's underlying numbers stronger than his results suggest, I'd play the Under up to -110.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.