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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 5, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.99 |
+163 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
5.18 |
-177 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +120 
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 overall.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-130 
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.35 |
+120
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
- Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 vs. National League East.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+143
|
o7.5 -128 
|
+1.5 -155 
|
|
5.25 |
-153
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts on grass.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+166)
o0.5+166
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+143
|
o7.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
3.89 |
-153
|
u7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +140
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Valdezs last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+257
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-157
|
o9.5 +105
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.95 |
+147
|
u9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+162
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.67 |
-170
|
u8.0 -119
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Kikuchis last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Pirates last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.27 |
-134
|
o7.5 -121
|
-1.5 +123
|
|
4.36 |
+130
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -135
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Orioles last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Coby Mayo o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
-105
|
o6.5 -135
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.02 |
-105
|
u7.5 -134
|
+1.5 -190
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+254)
o0.5+254
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.55 |
-104
|
o9.5 -114
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
5.67 |
-105
|
u9.5 -104
|
+1.5 -162
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Royals last 7 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+174)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
+106
|
o8.0 -119
|
+1.5 -192
|
|
4.52 |
-115
|
u8.5 -117
|
-1.5 +166
|
Minnesota
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games.
Top Projection
Luke Keaschall o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+101
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.26 |
-110
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
-105
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
4.50 |
-105
|
u8.5 -106
|
+1.5 -170
|
Arizona
- Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Houston
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 interleague games.
- Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.62 |
-117
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
5.45 |
+110
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 -145
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League West.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+205
|
o7.5 -119
|
+1.5 -114
|
|
5.04 |
-216
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +100
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+220
|
o7.5 -122
|
+1.5 +105
|
|
4.61 |
-245
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 -115
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
o0.5+800
SF
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 5 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. This contest is projected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Anthony Molina today.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs
Francisco Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This contest is projected to have the 11th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences today.. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Francisco Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
ATL
@
PHI
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
DET
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The #2 field in the league for boosting base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. This year, Riley Greene's 14.5% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 94th percentile among his peers.. This year, Riley Greene has an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph, which ranks among the best in MLB at the 78th percentile.
Total RBIs
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total RBIs (+227)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dillon Dingler is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Dillon Dingler will hold the platoon advantage against Parker Messick today.
MIL
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Edwin Arroyo o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edwin Arroyo in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB.. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is projected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.
LAA
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for left-handed BABIP.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate at 77%.. In the last week, Mike Trout's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.2%.
BOS
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Mickey Gasper ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mickey Gasper is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The switch-hitting Mickey Gasper will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Chris Bassitt... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Mickey Gasper has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the past two weeks.
Total RBIs
Coby Mayo o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Coby Mayo will hold that advantage today.. Coby Mayo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 87.5-mph mark.. This year, Coby Mayo's 12.9% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 88th percentile among his peers.
TB
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
Total RBIs
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best batter in the majors.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.
TOR
@
KC
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Isaac Collins o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #6 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts the most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average talent.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #6 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts the most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
MIN
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Anthony Kay o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+195)
Projection 4.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Nick Mahrley) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. Projected catcher Jake Rogers profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Anthony Kay will hold that advantage in today's game.. Anthony Kay's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 81st percentile out of all starters.. Anthony Kay's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (60.1% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Total Bases
Colson Montgomery o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as Major League Baseball's 15th-best home run batter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The #6 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Colson Montgomery will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game.
NYY
@
SD
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
AZ
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.
Total Bases
Ryan Waldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
Projection 1.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
STL
@
COL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand today.. Nolan Gorman has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (33.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mason Adams is a pitch-to-contact type (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.
WAS
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #1 park in the majors for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total RBIs (+600)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Dodger Stadium profiles as the #1 ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest CF dimensions among all stadiums.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.
ATH
@
SEA
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total RBIs (+800)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Ward ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Taylor Ward will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's game.. Taylor Ward has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
Strikeouts Thrown
George Kirby o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+116)
Projection 6.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
George Kirby has averaged 92.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.. The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Zack Gelof, Henry Bolte).. Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for strikeouts.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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