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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 8, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+114 
|
o8.5 -109 
|
+1.5 -180 
|
|
4.68 |
-121 
|
u8.5 -102 
|
-1.5 +162
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 5-0 in Youngs last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
o1.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
+125
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.67 |
-134
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Kremers last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Kremers last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kremers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Detroit
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 home games.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.88 |
+125
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
5.19 |
-130
|
u8.5 +100 
|
-1.5 +150
|
Houston
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Wesneskis last 5 starts as an underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
o0.5+167
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
+117
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.07 |
-121
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +168
|
NY Mets
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Miami
- Over is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Alcantaras last 4 home starts.
- Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.83 |
+128 
|
o7.5 -117
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.47 |
-136
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Detmers' last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 8-1 in Detmers' last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-1 in Detmers' last 7 starts vs. American League East.
Boston
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Patrick Sandoval o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+500)
o5.5-125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.52 |
+295
|
o8.0 -109
|
+2.5 -125
|
|
5.60 |
-330
|
u8.5 -125
|
-2.5 +105
|
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 interleague games.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
o0.5+239
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.08 |
+101
|
o8.0 -119
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.12 |
-111
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Atlanta
- Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Smith-Shawvers last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Smith-Shawvers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+310)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
+131
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.91 |
-141
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +145
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts.
- Over is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.22 |
-115
|
o9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.63 |
+105
|
u9.5 -124
|
+1.5 -160
|
Arizona
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 on grass.
- Under is 8-0 in Diamondbacks last 8 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Kansas City
- Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Royals are 4-0 in Wachas last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Wachas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Corbin Burnes u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160)
u3.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+190
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.33 |
-210
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +105
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Petersons last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-0 in Petersons last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Misiorowskis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Misiorowskis last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+281)
o0.5+281
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.09 |
+120
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.26 |
-130
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. American League West.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 overall.
- Over is 9-2 in Mariners last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.94 |
+166
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.34 |
-180
|
u8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +125
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-2-2 in Nationals last 10 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. National League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+228)
o0.5+228
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.46 |
-175
|
o9.0 -139
|
-1.5 -114
|
|
3.88 |
+160
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 +100
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Jeff McNeil u0.5 Total Hits (+230)
u0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
-102
|
o7.0 -157
|
+1.5 -230
|
|
3.92 |
-105
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +185
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.68 |
+281
|
o7.0 -180
|
+4.5 -315
|
|
5.76 |
-319
|
u8.5 -120
|
-4.5 +245
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.11 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Detroit
- Tigers are 5-0 in Monteros last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 9-1 in Monteros last 10 starts as a home underdog.
- Tigers are 8-1 in Monteros last 9 starts as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 overall.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.86 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League West.
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.67 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2-2 in Nationals last 10 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. National League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 overall.
- Over is 9-2 in Mariners last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-2 in Mariners last 8 during game 2 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.49 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Guardians are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.46 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Miami
- Over is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Junks last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.72 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Browns last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Sanchezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts overall.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in Bennetts last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
6.04 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Rockies are 8-0 in Suganos last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Suganos last 4 interleague starts.
NY Yankees
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Under is 5-1 in Warrens last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
CLE
@
BAL
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:35 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-105)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Under fits with both offenses struggling to produce and neither lineup showing much home-run power. Bibee and Young do not need to dominate for this game to stay controlled, especially with both bullpens entering in strong form and limiting late-game damage.
Moneyline
CLE (+107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Cleveland has the cleaner edge with Tanner Bibee facing a cold Baltimore lineup. Bibee has limited hard contact and kept the ball in the yard lately, while Brandon Young’s recent FIP and home-run issues give the Guardians a clearer offensive path, even if the edge is modest.
MIN
@
DET
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Riley Greene ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Riley Greene will have the upper hand today.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.. Spencer Torkelson will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
HOU
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (-139)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Phillies rank fifth in xwOBA with an average of 4.7 runs per game across the past 30 days, while the Astros rank last in the advance metric with just 3.8 runs per game. Promising Philly starter Andrew Painter has also found a groove with two runs or fewer allowed in five of his past seven starts while spinning a tidy 2.98 xERA and limiting opposing hitters to a minuscule 3.8 barrel percentage. Additionally, while Houston righty Hayden Wesneski has only allowed a single run across his past three outings, there’s serious statistical correction coming to his unsustainable .125 BABIP and 92.3% strand rate during the run.
Moneyline
HOU (+120)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Philadelphia's 21-9 run over its last 30 makes this uncomfortable, but the pitching matchup creates value. Hayden Wesneski has held opponents to a .530 OPS over the last 28 days and is coming off two dominant starts. Andrew Painter owns a 5.55 ERA, while left-handed hitters have posted an .812 OPS against him — a dangerous matchup with Yordan Alvarez anchoring Houston’s lineup.
NYM
@
MIA
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+233)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. In the last 7 days, Bo Bichette's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 25%.. Bo Bichette's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 12.4% to 18.4%.. In the last week, Bo Bichette's 75% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.4%.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+168)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Carson Benge will have an edge in today's game.. Carson Benge has recorded a .335 BABIP this year, grading out in the 91st percentile.
LAA
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Andruw Monasterio o1.5 Total RBIs (+700)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andruw Monasterio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Andruw Monasterio will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Patrick Sandoval o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+500)
Projection 6.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Los Angeles Angels with a 28.8% underlying K%.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Red Sox's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a good pitch framer.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Patrick Sandoval will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats across the board.
COL
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Connor Norby o1.5 Total Bases (+253)
Projection 1.26
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Yankee Stadium as the 10th-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Connor Norby's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 18.5% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.
Total Hits
Luis Garcia Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Luis Garcia Jr. has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 26% of the time.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #24 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Luis Garcia Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Luis Garcia Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%.
TB
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Yastrzemski o1.5 Total Bases (+300)
Projection 1.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Truist Park grades out as the #4 stadium in MLB for overall LHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. The #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.. Austin Riley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
PIT
@
CHW
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Burke in today's game.. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Colson Montgomery u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
AZ
@
KC
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
KC (-101)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
This sets up as a sneaky spot to back the home dog. Corbin Burnes could be on a short leash in his season debut after a limited buildup, exposing an Arizona bullpen that used seven arms yesterday. KC ranks third in OPS at home over the past month and has won Michael Wacha’s last four starts. With a reliable bullpen behind him, the Royals are worth backing.
Total Bases
Tim Tawa o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 96°.. Tim Tawa's launch angle this year (11.8°) is significantly better than his 7.5° figure last season.
CHC
@
MIL
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. The #8 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all stadiums, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jacob Misiorowski u8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-148)
Projection 7.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Jacob Misiorowski has used his four-seamer 8.5% more often this season (62.9%) than he did last year (54.4%).. Jacob Misiorowski has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 13.18 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 12.67 — a 0.51 K/9 gap.
TEX
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. J.P. Crawford is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at T-Mobile Park is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. J.P. Crawford has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at T-Mobile Park is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Jake Burger pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.. Jake Burger has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.5% seasonal rate to 17.2% over the past two weeks.
WAS
@
SD
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
WAS (+162)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Nationals have dropped five straight games and have seen their market price fall, trading at just 37% today in a matchup where I think they can be competitive. James Wood is back and has gone 6-for-19 with three extra-base hits since returning, giving a boost to an offense that was the highest-scoring in baseball in the first half. San Diego starter Casey Mize is not a pitcher I want to back as a 67% favorite. He's struggled since coming over from Detroit, owning a 6.67 ERA with eight homers allowed over 27 innings. His strikeouts are way down, and he's allowed five homers with just five strikeouts over his last three starts. His 6.05 xFIP is the worst of any San Diego pitcher in the second half with at least 20 innings. The Nationals are going with a questionable opener, but every other arm is basically available. With the market giving them just a 37% chance to win, THE BAT's 42% fair price gives us enough value to take a shot on the Nats.
Total Bases
Jake Cronenworth u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Petco Park grades out as the #25 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.. In the last week, Jake Cronenworth's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 89.3 mph to 83.7 mph.. There has been a significant decline in Jake Cronenworth's launch angle from last year's 14.5° to 10.4° this season.. In the last week, Jake Cronenworth's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.1%.
TOR
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-106)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 4th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (-104)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
STL
@
SF
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Jordan Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 96-mph in the last week's worth of games.
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+188)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Ivan Herrera has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph mark.
CIN
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 8 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+335)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Teoscar Hernandez historically hammers lefties, and that is starting to shine through more and more of late.
Hernandez has hit .294 with a .235 ISO and .929 OPS against left-handed pitching over his past 30 games.
His ISOs against Nick Lodolo’s three most-used pitches during that span: .353, .235 and .600.
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Nick Lodolo has gotten blasted by teams ranking Top-10 in xwOBA against lefties. His ERA sits at 6.43 over 10 such starts, and his xERA is even higher at 7.32.
Tarik Skubal's only pitched more than six innings once with the Los Angeles Dodgers so the Cincinnati Reds will likely get three innings to score against lesser relievers.
Play to 58%.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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