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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 16, 2026.
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STL
@
CHC
Sun, Aug 16 • 3:15 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (+114)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Cardinals and Cubs combined for 12 runs Saturday, but Sunday sets up for a much quieter offensive performance. While St. Louis has a favorable matchup against Edward Cabrera, replicating Saturday's production will be difficult. Hunter Dobbins has been effective on the road, limiting opposing hitters to a .216 xBA, .377 xSLG and .190 ISO while posting a 3.43 ERA. With Dobbins pitching well away from home and the Cardinals coming off such an explosive offensive showing, some regression should come Sunday. There should still be runs on the board, but Dobbins' strong road numbers and the Cardinals' massive offensive output Saturday make the under the preferred side in this matchup.
Moneyline
STL (+146)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Cardinals look like a sneaky value play Sunday afternoon against the Cubs. Edward Cabrera is making his return from the injured list, but he struggled mightily before landing there, posting a 7.59 ERA and allowing a 50% hard-hit rate over his final five outings. Meanwhile, Cardinals right-hander Hunter Dobbins has been extremely serviceable, carrying a 3.25 ERA, 2.77 xERA and 1.23 WHIP while limiting hard contact and barrels. With Cabrera returning after an extended absence and struggling before his injury, the easy fade is the Cardinals after their big offensive showing Saturday. Instead, the Cardinals look pretty delectable in this matchup Sunday afternoon.
COL
@
SF
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
DC
Drew Cavanaugh u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Drew Cavanaugh is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 6th-worst stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Oracle Park has the highest average fence height in MLB.. This game is expected to have the most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Drew Cavanaugh's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 92.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 85.3-mph over the last 7 days.
Total RBIs
Adael Amador o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
Projection 0.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for bats.. Adael Amador pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of every team in action today.
TEX
@
ATH
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
KC
@
LAA
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for bats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .314, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .042 difference between that figure and his actual .272 wOBA.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Carter Jensen ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carter Jensen is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for bats.
MIL
@
LAD
Sun, Aug 16 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+262)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Ohtani is an elite home run candidate today, ranking second-highest on Batters-Box's default ratings. He homers nearly 30% of the time when rated elite and enters this matchup with a .575 SLG and .325 ISO over his last 10 games. Milwaukee right-hander Logan Henderson has struggled against lefties, allowing a .308 xBA, .670 xSLG, .439 xwOBA and 48.6% hard-hit rate over his last 60 faced. Ohtani covers 100% of Henderson's pitch mix, giving him an excellent opportunity to do damage. With the matchup and recent form aligning, Ohtani is one of my favorite home run looks.
Total Home Runs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+262)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Shohei Ohtani has posted 8.6 runs above average against changeups, which is a full run higher than the next-closest hitter, and he has a career 173 wRC+ against heaters. Why's that of note? He faces Logan Henderson, a fifth-percentile groundball-rate pitcher who throws either his fastball or his changeup 82% of the time to lefties.
SEA
@
HOU
Sun, Aug 16 • 7:20 PM ET
Outs Recorded
Hunter Brown o17.5 Outs Recorded (-130)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Hunter Brown draws an excellent matchup against a struggling Seattle Mariners lineup on Sunday night. Seattle owns a 94 wRC+, .302 wOBA and .678 OPS over its last 21 games, while several key hitters have gone ice cold against right-handed pitching. Taylor Ward, Cole Young, Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone are all batting .250 or worse over their last 30 at-bats against righties. Brown has posted a 3.81 ERA, 3.21 xERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last five starts, while limiting hard contact. With the second-highest pitcher rating on the slate, I trust Brown to complete six innings at -140 or better.
Total Hits
Taylor Trammell o0.5 Total Hits (-135)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Taylor Trammell is in a strong spot to do the bare minimum this evening, and I am willing to pay the $1.35 juice to back him. The Astros outfielder has been crushing right-handed pitching, generating a 53% hard-hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate while posting a .308 ISO and .462 SLG over his last 30 at-bats against righties. Woo has also struggled to limit hard contact against left-handed bats, creating an appealing matchup for Trammell. Given his recent success against right-handed pitching and Woo’s struggles with hard contact, simply putting the ball in play and reaching base safely feels very doable.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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