Toronto @ New York Picks & Props

Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Austin Wells will have an advantage in today's matchup. Austin Wells will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Austin Wells has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 93.5-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Austin Wells's launch angle from last year's 16.9° to 20.8° this year. In the past two weeks, Austin Wells has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 22.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.1°.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year. His .376 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .406. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to study power) has been 120.4 mph this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.3-mph now compared to just 85.3-mph then. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ernie Clement's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%. Ernie Clement has put up a .272 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Paul Goldschmidt's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 45.3% on the season to 56.5% over the last two weeks.

Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Jose Caballero has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.3-mph average to last season's 83.5-mph mark. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 43.9% to 50%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage over Cam Schlitter in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Last season, Andres Gimenez had an average launch angle of 9.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.5°. In terms of his batting average, Andres Gimenez has suffered from bad luck this year. His .219 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .251.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Over the last week, Alejandro Kirk's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 26.7%. In comparison to his 89.3-mph average last year, Alejandro Kirk's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 91.6 mph.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Aaron Judge will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 19°, Aaron Judge has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 23.9° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games. Checking in at the 100th percentile, Aaron Judge has posted a .456 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Anthony Volpe will hold that advantage in today's game. Anthony Volpe has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the last week. Over the past week, Anthony Volpe's 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Anthony Volpe's true offensive talent to be a .311, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .023 deviation between that mark and his actual .288 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an advantage today. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 10% rate last season to 17.8% this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. George Springer has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last year to 16.4% this year. Over the past week, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.4% up to 26.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 5th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability. Bo Bichette is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. In the last 7 days, Bo Bichette's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.6% up to 15%.

Nathan Lukes's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Cam Schlitter throws from, Nathan Lukes will have an advantage in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Nathan Lukes has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal figure of 88.6-mph. In the past week's worth of games, Nathan Lukes's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.7%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ben Rice is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Ben Rice will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ben Rice will hold that advantage today.

Ryan McMahon will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Gausman today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ryan McMahon will hold that advantage in today's game. Ryan McMahon has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.2-mph figure. Last year, Ryan McMahon had an average launch angle of 10.7° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 14.4°. In the past week's worth of games, Ryan McMahon's 80% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.1%.

Addison Barger is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage against Cam Schlitter in today's game. Addison Barger pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Addison Barger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.2-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand in today's game. Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cody Bellinger will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Cam Schlitter throws from, Daulton Varsho will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage today. Giancarlo Stanton has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 21% seasonal rate to 35.3% in the last two weeks. Giancarlo Stanton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal figure of 96.6-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Trent Grisham will have an edge today. Trent Grisham pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Trent Grisham will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.