Kyle Schwarber has consistently hit for power all season long but he’s gone quiet of late, with 16 of 20 total bases over the last 10 games coming in just one outing.
He is in a great spot to get back on track offensively against Valente Bellozo, which is why he headlines three of my MLB player props for Friday, September 5.
Best MLB player props today
Freeman o1.5 total bases (-115)
Judge o0.5 RBI (+120)
Schwarber o1.5 TB (-115)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Friday, September 5
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases
Freddie Freeman is seeing the ball very well right now. He has recorded 11 hard hit balls over his last six games, slotting him behind only Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and Brandon Nimmo during that time. Pretty good company.
He is likely to pose real problems for Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer, who tends to struggle against left-handed bats. Kremer has allowed a .200 ISO, 1.4 homers per nine innings, and 35 extra base hits vs. lefties. He’s held righties to a .131 ISO, 1.0 homers per nine innings, and 21 extra base hits. Night and day.
Beyond Freeman consistently hitting the ball hard, and in a favorable matchup in terms of splits, he also profiles extremely well against Kremer’s go-to pitches.
Kremer leans heavily on the fastball and splitter against left-handed bats. Freeman owns averages of .274 and .400 vs. those pitches. Expect Freeman to make noise in this matchup.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, MASN, MASN+
Prop #2: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Aaron Judge is a Kevin Gausman killer. He has feasted on the veteran righty in recent years, hitting .356 with a .457 ISO. Nine of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases.
Guasman throws the fastball more than 50% of the time when facing right-handed bats. That’s likely to get him into trouble against Judge, who has hit .297 with a .426 ISO against fastballs this season.
When Gausman leaves the game, the Toronto Blue Jays could have even more trouble trying to slow Judge. He is 15-43 (.349 average) with a .488 ISO and seven homers against Jays relievers.
Judge hasn’t driven in a run in three straight games. Expect him to buck that trend in a huge inner division clash.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Sportsnet, TVA Sports, MLBN
Prop #3: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
It’s wheels up for Kyle Schwarber on Friday night. He draws a mouthwatering matchup against Valente Bellozo, who has had a miserable time against left-handed bats all year. Bellozo has allowed a .319 average, .203 ISO, and 1.7 homers per nine innings of work. Really bad outputs across the board.
Schwarber is as likely as anybody to take advantage. He hits for so much power and excels against everything Bellozo has in his pitch arsenal.
Bellozo throws the cutter, changeup, and fastball on at least 25% of his pitches. Schwarber has managed ridiculously high ISOs of .357, .291, and .371 against those three.
One might think Bellozo could put those pitches in his back pocket a little more often and rely on the curveball more, which is No. 4 on his most used list.
The numbers suggest that might lead to even more harm as Schwarber has an ISO of .444, best of any pitch.
Outside of the historic four homer game, Schwarber has been abnormally quiet of late. This is a great spot to change that.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Florida, WBFS-TV, NBCSP
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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