Pittsburgh @ St. Louis props

Batting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Nathan Church will have an advantage in today's matchup. Nathan Church has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nathan Church will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the last week, Nathan Church has averaged an impressive 101-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's game. Thomas Saggese has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.2% seasonal rate to 12.9% over the last 14 days. In the past 14 days, Thomas Saggese has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 17.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ivan Herrera has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 91.5-mph figure.

Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an advantage in today's game. In the past week, Jack Suwinski's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.4-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph lately. Jack Suwinski's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 15.2% on the season to 40% over the last 7 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.225) may lead us to conclude that Jack Suwinski has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .164 actual batting average.

Liover Peguero is quite fast, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.14 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jordan Walker will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Jordan Walker has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last two weeks.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an edge in today's matchup. Compared to last season, Spencer Horwitz has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 46.2% to 51.2% this season. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 51.2% on the season to 64.3% in the last week's worth of games.

Masyn Winn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today. In the last 14 days, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.5-mph over the course of the season to 92.9-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Johan Oviedo today. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Jared Triolo's BABIP talent is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jared Triolo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Jared Triolo has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.2° figure in the last 14 days. Jared Triolo has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .213 rate is quite a bit lower than his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 1.59 K/BB rate this year, Jared Triolo has demonstrated good plate discipline, grading out in the 89th percentile.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Johan Oviedo in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Joey Bart's BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Bart has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last season's 93-mph EV. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 43.1% to 52.2%. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Joey Bart has had bad variance on his side this year. His .306 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326. Posting a .350 BABIP this year, Joey Bart has performed in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Over the last week, Andrew McCutchen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.9% up to 20%. Andrew McCutchen has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 95-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. In the past two weeks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.3-mph over the course of the season to 92.2-mph in recent games. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 46.6% on the season to 69.2% in the past week.

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Michael McGreevy. Bryan Reynolds's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 44.3% to 49.4%. Bryan Reynolds has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .307 figure is a fair amount lower than his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Tommy Pham is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Tommy Pham has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 98.2-mph in the last 14 days. Tommy Pham's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 47% on the season to 70% in the last week.

Ronny Simon has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Ronny Simon hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Ronny Simon's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 16.7%. Over the last 14 days, Ronny Simon's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 95.4-mph lately. Ronny Simon has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .248 mark is a good deal lower than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Henry Davis has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.