Pittsburgh @ St. Louis picks

Johan Oviedo made his first start with the Pirates on August 4th but was not good, throwing 43 pitches in the first inning and striking out three. He then had a massive bounce-back game and went 15 outs vs. the Jays striking out six on 75 pitches. He could see that pitch count run to 85 today, and five innings and five punchouts is a safe floor. The Cardinals are coming back from two series in Florida so there could be some sleepy bats for an offense striking out at a Top-10 rate over the last 30 days. Oviedo had 37 Ks in the minors in 27 innings and he has K/inning stuff when he is on. His ceiling today is seven or eight punchouts. I love this spot for him — even on the road. I'm buying this prop to -120.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Ivan Herrera has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 91.5-mph figure.

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Batting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Johan Oviedo today.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Johan Oviedo in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 7th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Liover Peguero is quite fast, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.14 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael McGreevy to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games. Derek Thomas grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Michael McGreevy's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 21st percentile among all starters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 6th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Batting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.