Atlanta @ New York picks

Kodai Senga has great numbers for the Mets this year, and he’ll likely both lengthen his starts and get better results going forward. But he has struggled since returning from his hamstring strain, putting up a 6.61 ERA in 16.1 innings of work over his last four starts. He hasn’t gone more than five innings since his return, but will likely be asked to go at least that far tonight. Both lineups are red hot right now, and both starters are vulnerable. This is a clear spot to back the Over.

Juan Soto went deep for the 29th time on Wednesday, so why not keep it rolling? The Dominican has four round-trippers in his last six appearances and is set to face Braves starter Bryce Elder tonight, against whom he’s 2-for-3 with a home run. 

 

Kodia Senga has not pitched well of late. He has gone more than 15 outs just once in six straight starts where he has thrown 79, 17, 92, 73, 67, and 77 pitches. He has 23 Ks over those 26 innings and has had serious issues with walks — 17 in total. That’s bad news today as the Braves are walking at one of the best rates in baseball over the last two weeks. His walk prop is at 2.5. This is going to drive up his already throttled pitch count for a team that can’t afford to lose right now. His Under 4.5 Ks is the market I want to target for another poor performance at plus money. If this moves to +110, I’d rather take his Over 2.5 walks at -110.  

Kodai Senga’s ERA is at 2.42 at home, and Atlanta isn’t the same team offensively this season as it has been in recent campaigns. Having given up just one earned run last time out, Senga will build on that performance and bring his best.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams playing today.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cedric Mullins usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Juan Soto will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder today.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Kodai Senga in today's game.. Matt Olson has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Brett Baty will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Brett Baty will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Brett Baty has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 5.5% rate last year to 13.7% this season.

Drake Baldwin's batting average talent is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Drake Baldwin is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Drake Baldwin will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Francisco Alvarez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past two weeks, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 100.7-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder today.. Brandon Nimmo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the league's 11th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.