Boston @ Houston picks

This line is low, but it makes sense with two lineups ranking 17th and 19th in OPS since the All-Star break squaring off. The stingy Garret Crochet will keep the Astros in check, while Cristian Javier and Houston's fourth-ranked bullpen by xFIP will stifle Boston's bats.

Abreu has posted a solid .350 wOBA, .251 ISO and .831 ISO against right-handed pitchers and has settled into the middle of the Boston lineup of late and hit the Over in this market in five of his past seven games. He’ll face Astros righty Cristian Javier in his first MLB start since last May. Javier issued 15 walks across 14 innings in the minors during his rehab from Tommy John surgery, so I’m anticipating the Red Sox to have plenty of baserunners Monday, and Abreu to have his opportunities to fill out the box score.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez).. It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Junior Valentine) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for strikeouts.. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. When it comes to his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky this year. His 19.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.3.

Jose Altuve's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Jose Altuve will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Christian Walker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today.. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hitters such as Romy Gonzalez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristian Javier who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Romy Gonzalez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 16.5% this season.. Romy Gonzalez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 92.3-mph mark.. Over the past 14 days, Romy Gonzalez's 68.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.1%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. This season, Alex Bregman has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.1 mph compared to last year's 90.9 mph mark.. Alex Bregman has notched a .395 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 98th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Jesus Sanchez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Jesus Sanchez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. Jesus Sanchez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.4-mph mark.

Wilyer Abreu has been pinch hit for 10% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Minute Maid Park ranks as the #23 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The league's 3rd-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hitters such as Romy Gonzalez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristian Javier who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Romy Gonzalez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 16.5% this season.. Romy Gonzalez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 92.3-mph mark.. Over the past 14 days, Romy Gonzalez's 68.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Grading out in the 91st percentile, Trevor Story has notched a .332 BABIP this year.