Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee picks
American Family Field
PIT vs MIL Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
On the season, Milwaukee ranks in the top four in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage. That success at the plate is likely to continue against left-hander Andrew Heaney, who gets the ball for the Pirates. The good news for Pittsburgh is that it should also have success against Jose Quintana. Through 98 combined plate appearances, the current Pirates roster boasts a .318 xBA, a .548 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and a .388 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) vs. the LHP.
Total RBIs

Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Oneil Cruz has big-time power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana has a pitch-to-contact profile (9th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.
Total RBIs

William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, William Contreras will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total RBIs

Henry Davis o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Henry Davis will have an edge today.. Henry Davis has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last 14 days.. Henry Davis has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 94.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Total RBIs

Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. In the past week's worth of games, Bryan Reynolds's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.4%.
Total RBIs

Tommy Pham o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Tommy Pham will have an edge today.. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs

Andrew Vaughn o0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Andrew Vaughn will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs

Christian Yelich o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his BABIP talent, Christian Yelich is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Yelich is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Christian Yelich will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Henry Davis o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-161)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Henry Davis will have an edge today.. Henry Davis has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last 14 days.. Henry Davis has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 94.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Oneil Cruz has big-time power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana has a pitch-to-contact profile (9th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Andrew McCutchen o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have the upper hand in today's matchup.