Houston @ Boston picks

Lucas Giolito has allowed a .914 OPS to Houston hitters, while Framber Valdez is locked in with a 2.62 ERA and four quality starts over his last five outings. Back Houston to come out on top at Fenway.

Framber Valdez boasts solid command and should benefit from Boston’s 24% strikeout rate against LHP. Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has surrendered 11 earned runs across his past 29 frames. The right-hander's 4.12 xFIP and .934 OPS against this current Astros lineup give Houston another edge to exploit. Both bullpens have been lights out this season, so I’m betting Houston strikes early against Giolito and never looks back.

Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Roman Anthony has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.. Roman Anthony will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Jose Altuve's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Altuve is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.. Jose Altuve's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 43% on the season to 60.5% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito today.. Jesus Sanchez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Christian Walker is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Despite posting a .306 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has been unlucky given the .022 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

When assessing his batting average talent, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. Jeremy Pena's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (10.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 7.2° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Yainer Diaz has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days.. In the past week, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.6-mph of late.

As it relates to his home run talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Romy Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.. Romy Gonzalez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.