Toronto @ Detroit picks

The Blue Jays benefited from some sloppy Yankees defense in their last series, and this sets up as a clear letdown spot against a stingy Detroit staff. Detroit hass gone 1-9 SU in its last 10 and is scoring at the lowest rate in MLB since the All-Star break. Add in a 16 MPH wind blowing right to left, which could suppress power, and the edge leans heavily to the pitching side. Both bullpens are fully rested, adding even more support to a low-scoring outlook.

Addison Barger is hitting .339 in July with an OPS of 1.022. The Jays' power hitter ranks in the 86th percentile in xBA, while also ranking in the 94th and 93rd in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, respectively. Barger also has a much higher slugging rate against right-handed pitching, like tonight's opponent, Reese Olson.

Despite his solid barrel rate, the Toronto Blue Jays shortstop continues to struggle with plate discipline. While he’s made strides in lowering his whiff rate, his chase rate remains among the highest in the league. I expect Reese Olson to exploit that tonight.

Eric Lauer has been solid as a starter, posting a 3.61 ERA over 9 starts with 42.1 IP and 48 strikeouts. He’s in a strong spot to go 18 outs against a struggling Detroit lineup that’s striking out at a 25% rate of late and has scored just nine total runs in six games since the All-Star break. While THE BAT projection model is down on him, I see value in fading Detroit's offense here and hoping for a pitch count of 85+ pitches. Schneider doesn't want to dig into the pen in Game 1 of a four-game series. 

I’m adding on to my TOR/DET card and getting the Detroit starter to throw at least a pair of free passes. He walks about a batter every three innings but the Jays are very tough outs and take a lot of pitches. They are one of seven teams with a 10% or better walk rate since the All-Star break and Olson hasn’t had a single start in his 12 turns of zero-walk baseball. He is 7-5 to the Over on this prop this year but just 1-4 O/U which is why we are likely getting even money or better. His leash could be longer in the opener of a four-game set and 90 pitches and two walks at plus money is better than a coin flip. Buy to -115. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eric Lauer to throw 80 pitches in today's game (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Ramon De Jesus profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Comerica Park as the 8th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.. Among every team today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

Jahmai Jones is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.. Hitting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Jahmai Jones will have an edge in today's game.. Jahmai Jones will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 92°.. Wenceel Perez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Wenceel Perez has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 4.4% rate last year to 10.7% this season.

When it comes to his home run skill, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 93°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 92°.

Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.. Hitting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Dillon Dingler will have an advantage in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Dillon Dingler will hold that advantage in today's game.. Dillon Dingler ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.3% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Vierling in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Matt Vierling is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.