Tampa Bay @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
TB vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
The Boston Red Sox are on a roll and that’s thanks in large part to Ceddanne Rafaela. The right-hitting Rafaela has done very well against right-handed pitchers this year so I like the matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz. Rafaela is batting .276 vs. righties with a .323 BAbip – compared to just .250/.254 vs. lefties.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Christopher Morel o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-137)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Christopher Morel will have the upper hand in today's game.. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Danny Jansen o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-154)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Danny Jansen will have an advantage in today's game.. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Alex Bregman o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for run-scoring.. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Taylor Walls o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-167)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for run-scoring.. The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Garrett Crochet.. Taylor Walls has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for run-scoring.. Junior Caminero will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet today.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.
