New York @ Baltimore picks

The Baltimore Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, bringing down their already disappointing offensive numbers. Southpaws have held Baltimore to a .222 batting average, and a .617 OPS – more than 100 points worse than the Orioles hit against righties. Baltimore is averaging just 3.81 runs per game when they face lefty starters. That’s the situation the Orioles find themselves in tonight, as the New York Mets are sending David Peterson to the mound. Peterson has shown himself to be one of the better left-handed starters in the majors over the past two seasons. With New York likely to put up runs early and Peterson the perfect choice to shut down the Baltimore lineup, I’m taking the Mets to cover the run line tonight.

Juan Soto will face Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano this evening, and while this will be their first meeting, Soto has left the ballpark 17 times in 2025 against right-handed pitchers. Sugano also has serious issues with the HR, giving up 19 of them in just 17 outings. 

David Peterson has cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in 12 of his 17 appearances in 2025. His ERA lowers to 2.11 at Citi Field, and he tossed seven innings of two-run baseball last season versus Baltimore. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Considering Brandon Waddell's large platoon split, Gunnar Henderson will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Gunnar Henderson is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Tyler O'Neill as Major League Baseball's 14th-best home run batter.. The #7 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today.. Tyler O'Neill will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. In the past week's worth of games, Tyler O'Neill has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 50° angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Batting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Brett Baty will have the upper hand today.. Extreme groundball batters like Brett Baty usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.. Brett Baty has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 5.5% rate last season to 14.6% this year.. Brett Baty has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph EV.

When assessing his home run skill, Colton Cowser ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Given Brandon Waddell's large platoon split, Colton Cowser will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of every team in action today.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field fences are the shallowest.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage over Tomoyuki Sugano today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Because of Brandon Waddell's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Given Brandon Waddell's large platoon split, Ryan O'Hearn will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Ryan O'Hearn may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

When assessing his home run talent, Mark Vientos ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.. Mark Vientos has been unlucky this year, posting a .270 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .041 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the majors's 8th-best home run batter.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #7 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.3% this year.. Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.. Considering Brandon Waddell's large platoon split, Cedric Mullins will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of every team in action today.