Final Jul 5
TB 5 +106 o10.0
MIN 6 -115 u10.0
Final Jul 5
STL 8 +140 o11.0
CHC 6 -152 u11.0
Final (11) Jul 5
LAA 3 +175 o9.0
TOR 4 -192 u9.0
Final Jul 5
BOS 10 -112 o9.5
WAS 3 +103 u9.5
Final Jul 5
CIN 1 +160 o9.0
PHI 5 -175 u9.0
Final (10) Jul 5
BAL 9 +139 o8.5
ATL 6 -151 u8.5
Final Jul 5
MIL 2 -130 o8.5
MIA 4 +120 u8.5
Final Jul 5
KC 1 +119 o9.0
AZ 7 -129 u9.0
Final Jul 5
NYY 6 -140 o9.5
NYM 12 +129 u9.5
Final Jul 5
DET 1 -129 o9.0
CLE 0 +119 u9.0
Final Jul 5
HOU 6 +143 o9.0
LAD 4 -155 u9.0
Final Jul 5
CHW 10 +126 o11.0
COL 3 -136 u11.0
Final Jul 5
TEX 7 +113 o8.0
SD 4 -123 u8.0
Final Jul 5
SF 7 -176 o9.5
ATH 2 +161 u9.5
Final Jul 5
PIT 0 +147 o7.0
SEA 1 -161 u7.0

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota props

Target Field

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jake Mangum Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Jake Mangum
J. Mangum
left outfield LF • Tampa Bay
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will face a mismatch against Joe Ryan and his large platoon split in today's game. Jake Mangum hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Mangum in today's game. Jake Mangum's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 33.5% on the season to 27.3% over the past week. Jake Mangum has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .306 mark is considerably higher than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jake Mangum

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will face a mismatch against Joe Ryan and his large platoon split in today's game. Jake Mangum hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Mangum in today's game. Jake Mangum's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 33.5% on the season to 27.3% over the past week. Jake Mangum has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .306 mark is considerably higher than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yandy Diaz Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Yandy Diaz
Y. Diaz
first base 1B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Projection Rating

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

Yandy Diaz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

Junior Caminero Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Junior Caminero
J. Caminero
third base 3B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Junior Caminero

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Willi Castro Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Willi Castro
W. Castro
left outfield LF • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Willi Castro's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Willi Castro is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Willi Castro will get to bat from his strong side against Drew Rasmussen in this game.

Willi Castro

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Willi Castro's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Willi Castro is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Willi Castro will get to bat from his strong side against Drew Rasmussen in this game.

Chandler Simpson Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Chandler Simpson
C. Simpson
center outfield CF • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Chandler Simpson will have the handedness advantage against Joe Ryan in today's matchup... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Chandler Simpson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

Chandler Simpson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Chandler Simpson will have the handedness advantage against Joe Ryan in today's matchup... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Chandler Simpson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

Matt Wallner Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Matt Wallner
M. Wallner
right outfield RF • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Matt Wallner

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Brandon Lowe Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Brandon Lowe
B. Lowe
second base 2B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Given Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

Brandon Lowe

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Given Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

Ryan Jeffers Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Ryan Jeffers
R. Jeffers
catcher C • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 37.5% to 45.5%.

Ryan Jeffers

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 37.5% to 45.5%.

Taylor Walls Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Taylor Walls
T. Walls
shortstop SS • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team in action today. Taylor Walls's launch angle in recent games (34° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 15° seasonal mark. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.8% to 19.2%.

Taylor Walls

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team in action today. Taylor Walls's launch angle in recent games (34° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 15° seasonal mark. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.8% to 19.2%.

Jonathan Aranda Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Jonathan Aranda
J. Aranda
first base 1B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Because of Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.

Jonathan Aranda

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Because of Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.

Carlos Correa Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Carlos Correa
C. Correa
shortstop SS • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Carlos Correa is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today's game.

Carlos Correa

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Carlos Correa is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today's game.

Byron Buxton Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Byron Buxton
B. Buxton
center outfield CF • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Byron Buxton ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Byron Buxton

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Byron Buxton ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. The #10 venue in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Trevor Larnach Total Hits Props • Minnesota

Trevor Larnach
T. Larnach
right outfield RF • Minnesota
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Trevor Larnach is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an edge in today's game.

Trevor Larnach

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Trevor Larnach is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for lefty batting average. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an edge in today's game.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

Weather Forecast