San Diego @ Philadelphia picks

This is just Harper’s second game back but he has a track record of success against Pivetta, going 4-for-13 lifetime with a pair of home runs. 

While Abel hasn’t replicated his brilliant MLB debut across his past four starts, I’m anticipating an uptick in strikeouts Wednesday. Abel fanned nine in his first outing of the season and posted a solid 10.58 K/9 and 28.0 K% over 57 minor-league innings, so his respective 4.67 and 12.2% marks across his past four games are unsustainably low. The Padres have the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage against righties, but they also rank 25th in wOBA and 28th in ISO, so I’m anticipating Abel to pitch deep enough to record four or more strikeouts.

The Canadian right-hander has struggled on the road in 2025, where his ERA has ballooned to 4.50 across seven outings. He's given up Over 2.5 earned runs in three of his previous five appearances, and the Phillies' lineup is very familiar with Pivetta, batting .275 across 69 at-bats.

Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. This season, Elias Diaz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91 mph compared to last year's 88.3 mph mark.. Elias Diaz's launch angle this year (17.3°) is a significant increase over his 7.3° figure last year.. Elias Diaz's speed has increased this season. His 24.41 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.88 ft/sec now.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in the game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive skill to be a .378, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .035 difference between that mark and his actual .343 wOBA.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has posted a .349 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 84th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's game.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Mick Abel in today's game.. Gavin Sheets has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph EV.. Gavin Sheets's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 45.5% on the season to 56.3% over the past week.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's game.. Max Kepler will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Hitting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.4% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past 14 days.. Jake Cronenworth has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 94.7-mph over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. J.T. Realmuto will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Over the last two weeks, J.T. Realmuto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 96-mph lately.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates J.T. Realmuto's true offensive talent to be a .329, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .035 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .294 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Alec Bohm is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Alec Bohm will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Xander Bogaerts has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.2% seasonal rate to 10.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Over the past two weeks, Xander Bogaerts's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph lately.. Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, compiling a .307 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .024 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage against Mick Abel today.. Jackson Merrill has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14°, Jackson Merrill has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.5° angle over the last two weeks.