Milwaukee @ New York picks

The Mets were obliterated over the weekend, scoring just four runs while giving up 30.  A day off won't do them any good as they come up against Freddy Peralta on Tuesday. Peralta owns an 8-4 record with a 2.90 ERA, and he's not given up more than three runs in eight straight starts. With the Mets struggling at the plate, I like Freddy to deal and deliver a win for the Brew Crew. 

The New York Mets might be able to scrape out a win tonight even if they only put up a couple runs. But with two good starting pitchers on the mound and at least one team that’s struggling to score at all right now, I’m not expecting a lot of runs. The total for tonight’s game has been set at eight runs, and in a vacuum, that’s reasonable given how prolific these offenses have been all year long. But in this matchup, and with the Mets struggling to put anything together right now, the Under is the play for tonight.

On the surface this seems like a game where you wouldn't expect many runs. After all, both starting pitchers have an ERA below 3.00 and the Brewers are 27th in run first inning rate. That said, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has an xERA of 3.74 while Mets starter Clay Holmes has an xERA of 4.12. The Brewers also hit significantly better on the road where they are fifth in the majors in OPS (.747). The Mets are seventh in the majors in OPS (.740) with that number ticking up to .761 against righties like Peralta.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's game.

When assessing his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Clay Holmes in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Jake Bauers are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as baseball's 10th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 13th-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill.. Christian Yelich is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Christian Yelich will have an edge today.. Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.. Among all the teams today, the worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Francisco Lindor will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Mark Vientos has been unlucky this year, posting a .283 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .030 disparity.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Rhys Hoskins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Rhys Hoskins has paced 23.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 75th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as baseball's 10th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Brett Baty will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.. Brett Baty has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Batters such as Brett Baty with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Freddy Peralta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's game.