St. Louis @ Pittsburgh picks

The youngster has cashed the Over in earned runs surrendered in back-to-back outings, allowing four to the Brewers last week and two to the Tigers the start prior. Neither appearance can be considered terrible, but for Skenes’ standards, it’s not up to par. His total is at just 1.5 tonight, and Skenes allowed two earned runs to the Cardinals back in May in six innings of work. Of course, he could still have a respectable start, but St. Louis does have one of the better lineups in baseball. They’re also hitting .217 vs Skenes in 92 at-bats. 

Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the world but he's been struggling with his control. Since the start of May, Skenes has walked at least two batters in seven of 11 starts. He's averaging 2.8 walks per nine innings during that span which includes a May 6 clash against the Cardinals where he issued four walks. 

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Willson Contreras has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 14.2% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past week.. Willson Contreras has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 96.2-mph.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.9) may lead us to conclude that Willson Contreras has had bad variance on his side this year with his 19.1 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as the league's 18th-best home run batter.. Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes today.. Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Skenes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Andre Pallante.. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Bryan Reynolds will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game.. Oneil Cruz has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Oneil Cruz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.. Lars Nootbaar has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past 14 days.. Lars Nootbaar has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.3-mph EV.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Lars Nootbaar's true offensive skill to be a .342, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .025 difference between that mark and his actual .317 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as the league's 18th-best home run batter.. Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes today.. Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Skenes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-most humidity on the schedule today at 79%.. Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game.. Grading out in the 87th percentile, Victor Scott II sports a .336 BABIP this year.

Pedro Pages has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 88.7-mph.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Bats such as Nolan Arenado with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Skenes who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Nolan Arenado has shown strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 86th percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.