Chicago @ Houston props

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -14° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Kyle Tucker generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 20.6% on the season to 32.3% over the last two weeks. Kyle Tucker has recorded a .388 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 98th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 8% rate last season to 13.6% this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong's launch angle this year (22.8°) is a significant increase over his 16.7° mark last season. Checking in at the 92nd percentile, Pete Crow-Armstrong sits with a .371 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in MLB. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have the upper hand today. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Seiya Suzuki has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last season to 19% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Over the past week, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.5% up to 23.5%. Ian Happ has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.7-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph EV. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 15.9% on the season to 21.9% over the past 14 days.

Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christian Walker will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive ability to be a .328, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .046 deviation between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average talent is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Mauricio Dubon will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 88.1-mph. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 19.7% on the season to 42.9% over the last week. In terms of his batting average, Mauricio Dubon has been unlucky this year. His .242 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .281.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Dansby Swanson will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (14.4°) is significantly better than his 10.2° mark last year. Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .026 difference.

Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Luis Guillorme will have an advantage in today's game. Luis Guillorme has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Luis Guillorme tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon. Luis Guillorme will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.227) may lead us to conclude that Luis Guillorme has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .198 actual batting average.

Matt Shaw will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Matt Shaw has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .277 figure is a good deal lower than his .300 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for home runs. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Taylor Trammell will have an edge in today's matchup. Taylor Trammell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Cooper Hummel will hold that advantage in today's game. Cooper Hummel has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 98.4-mph. Cooper Hummel has been hot of late, notching a a 25% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the last two weeks' worth of games. In the last two weeks, Cooper Hummel's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 33.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Jon Berti's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jon Berti will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jon Berti has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .224 rate is a fair amount lower than his .294 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jon Berti grades out in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (51.3% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jake Meyers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 44.4% to 51.3%. With a .373 BABIP this year, Jake Meyers grades out in the 99th percentile.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Nico Hoerner will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 44.5% to 49.5%. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Nico Hoerner's 59.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.5%. Nico Hoerner has posted a .292 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Carson Kelly will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today. Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 95.1-mph. Carson Kelly's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 43.9% on the season to 63.6% in the past week's worth of games. Carson Kelly has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 88th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today. Victor Caratini has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 15.2% in the past 14 days. Victor Caratini's launch angle in recent games (33.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 15.6° seasonal angle.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Isaac Paredes has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last year's 85-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.4°, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30.2° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Justin Turner will have an edge in today's game. Bats such as Justin Turner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 19.1% to 27.5%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.303) may lead us to conclude that Justin Turner has experienced some negative variance this year with his .252 actual wOBA. Justin Turner has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 93rd percentile with a 1.53 K/BB rate.

Jeremy Pena has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.