Chicago @ Houston props

Matt Shaw will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Walter in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has experienced some negative variance this year. His .269 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 17th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Nico Hoerner will have an advantage in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 49.3% on the season to 57.1% in the last 7 days. By putting up a .291 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner has performed in the 94th percentile. Nico Hoerner has shown favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 88th percentile with a 1.44 K/BB rate.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Cade Horton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena today. Out of every team in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Jeremy Pena has been lucky this year, putting up a .376 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .049 gap.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Over the last 7 days, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.2% up to 23.5%. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 16.2% on the season to 21.9% in the past two weeks. Ian Happ has notched a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 81st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have the upper hand today. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last year to 19% this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Dansby Swanson will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (14.5°) is a considerable increase over his 10.2° mark last season. Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dansby Swanson has had some very poor luck given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Yainer Diaz's launch angle this season (12.2°) is considerably higher than his 8.7° figure last year. Yainer Diaz has been unlucky this year, compiling a .281 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .044 deviation.

Hitting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Taylor Trammell will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Taylor Trammell will hold that advantage today.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Carson Kelly will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Carson Kelly has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last year's 91.4-mph EV. In notching a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly has performed in the 88th percentile for offensive ability. Placing in the 88th percentile, Carson Kelly has posted a .363 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Posting a 1.23 K/BB rate this year, Carson Kelly has shown strong plate discipline, placing in the 95th percentile.

Victor Caratini will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Victor Caratini has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 15.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Victor Caratini's launch angle this year (15.6°) is quite a bit better than his 9.1° figure last year. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.6°, Victor Caratini has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 33.8° mark in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 45.5° mark in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 8% rate last season to 13.9% this season. There has been a significant improvement in Pete Crow-Armstrong's launch angle from last year's 16.7° to 23° this year. Placing in the 93rd percentile, Pete Crow-Armstrong has posted a .379 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average skill is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 2.7% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past week's worth of games. In the past 7 days, Mauricio Dubon's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.3%. As it relates to his batting average, Mauricio Dubon has suffered from bad luck this year. His .245 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .281.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 44.4% to 51.8%. Jake Meyers has put up a .373 BABIP this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (47% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. In comparison to his 85-mph average last year, Isaac Paredes's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 87.3 mph. Isaac Paredes's launch angle of late (30.7° in the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 21.3° seasonal mark.

Justin Turner will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Walter in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 19.1% to 27.5%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.302) provides evidence that Justin Turner has suffered from bad luck this year with his .246 actual wOBA. By putting up a 1.53 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Justin Turner has displayed impressive plate discipline, placing in the 93rd percentile.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Christian Walker will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive talent to be a .328, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .046 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA. Christian Walker's 17.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the league: 84th percentile.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Kyle Tucker's 34.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.8%. Using Statcast metrics, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 98th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .389.

Cooper Hummel will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Cooper Hummel has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .346. Over the past 14 days, Cooper Hummel's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 25% up to 25%. Over the last two weeks, Cooper Hummel's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 33.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.