Chicago @ Houston picks

The Cubs have kicked a mini-funk at the dish with 5.88 runs per over their past eight games, and the North Siders pace the majors with 5.76 runs per road game while ranking first in wOBA, ISO and OPS on the highway. Of course, the Chicago lineup has also done damage against left-handed pitchers this season with respective ranks of seventh in wOBA, fifth in ISO and sixth in OPS, and Houston southpaw Brandon Walter just served up seven earned runs across six innings to the Los Angeles Angels last time out.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have the upper hand today.. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last year to 19% this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Dansby Swanson will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (14.5°) is a considerable increase over his 10.2° mark last season.. Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dansby Swanson has had some very poor luck given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

When it comes to his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Christian Walker will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive talent to be a .328, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .046 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.. Christian Walker's 17.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the league: 84th percentile.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Kyle Tucker's 34.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.8%.. Kyle Tucker has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 26.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 32.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.2% up to 23.5%.. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 16.2% on the season to 21.9% in the past two weeks.. Ian Happ has notched a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 81st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Carson Kelly will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Carson Kelly has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last year's 91.4-mph EV.. In notching a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly has performed in the 88th percentile for offensive ability.. Placing in the 88th percentile, Carson Kelly has posted a .363 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.. Posting a 1.23 K/BB rate this year, Carson Kelly has shown strong plate discipline, placing in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.1°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 45.5° mark in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 44.4% to 51.8%.. Jake Meyers has put up a .373 BABIP this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 8% rate last season to 13.9% this season.. There has been a significant improvement in Pete Crow-Armstrong's launch angle from last year's 16.7° to 23° this year.. Placing in the 93rd percentile, Pete Crow-Armstrong has posted a .379 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Yainer Diaz's launch angle this season (12.2°) is considerably higher than his 8.7° figure last year.. Yainer Diaz has been unlucky this year, compiling a .281 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .044 deviation.