Tampa Bay @ Baltimore props

Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano. Danny Jansen has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last two weeks. Danny Jansen's launch angle in recent games (27.9° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 24.1° seasonal figure.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Dylan Carlson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.2% up to 16.7%. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 16.9% on the season to 33.3% over the past 7 days. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 39.1% to 47%.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game. Gary Sanchez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year's 90-mph average. There has been a significant improvement in Gary Sanchez's launch angle from last season's 15.8° to 19° this season. In the last week's worth of games, Gary Sanchez has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 16.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 10.1°.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers. Hitting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Yandy Diaz has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's game.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers. Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Junior Caminero will have a disadvantage today. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Junior Caminero are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ryan O'Hearn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 40.8% to 49%.

Over the past week, Taylor Walls's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.3% up to 9.1%. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 15.8% to 19.5%. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 19.5% on the season to 33.3% over the last 14 days. Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .267 mark is a good deal lower than his .288 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Over the past 7 days, Jose Caballero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.3% up to 14.3%. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 51.8%. In the last week's worth of games, Jose Caballero's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.8%. Grading out in the 79th percentile, Jose Caballero has posted a .316 BABIP since the start of last season.

Ramon Laureano is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Ramon Laureano will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Ramon Laureano has posted a .344 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 75th percentile. Ranking in the 92nd percentile, Ramon Laureano has notched a .332 BABIP since the start of last season.

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand today. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cedric Mullins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this season (25°) is considerably better than his 21.5° mark last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 25°, Cedric Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 33.1° mark over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jordan Westburg is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .222 figure is quite a bit lower than his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jordan Westburg's 12.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Jackson Holliday hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Jackson Holliday generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

When estimating his batting average skill, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chandler Simpson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano today. Chandler Simpson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Chandler Simpson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 52.7% on the season to 71.4% over the last week. With a .298 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Chandler Simpson finds himself in the 96th percentile.

Coby Mayo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Coby Mayo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Coby Mayo's launch angle in recent games (34.8° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 21° seasonal mark. Coby Mayo's quickness has increased this year. His 27.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.43 ft/sec now. Coby Mayo has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .197 mark is quite a bit lower than his .251 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's game. Colton Cowser's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 13.3% on the season to 26.3% in the past two weeks' worth of games. By putting up a .330 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Colton Cowser is ranked in the 76th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .333 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had bad variance on his side given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .360.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 55.7% on the season to 66.7% in the past week. This year, Jonathan Aranda has an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph, which ranks among the elite in the league at the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Brandon Lowe's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92-mph now compared to just 89.8-mph then.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Mangum is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. By putting up a .310 batting average this year, Jake Mangum is positioned in the 97th percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.