Tampa Bay @ Baltimore picks

The Rays are among the hottest things going right now, winners of three straight and seven of their last 10. They'll have the pitching advantage here with Pepiot taking on Sugano, and their offense has been dialed in for June. The O's are just sputtering along and have scored 13 runs across their last six games. Give me the hotter team on Friday night. 

Pepiot has averaged 98 pitches across his past five starts and topped out at 130 innings last season. He’s already at 94 2/3 to start 2025, so I’m anticipating the heavy workload to begin taking its toll. The righty has been excellent, but his 3.04 ERA is below his 3.82 xFIP, and his 84.7% strand rate is likely to prove unsustainably high. Plus, he’s also surrendered a healthy 41.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Baltimore sports a middling .320 wOBA at Camden Yards and .318 mark against righties for the year, so this isn't a five-star matchup, either.

Henderson draws Ryan Pepiot, a hittable righty who he is very familiar with from inner-division battles. He has excelled against right-handed pitchers all season long, hitting .307 with a .201 ISO. Those numbers are night and day to what he’s managed against lefties (.204 average, .061 ISO). The numbers are even more favorable when isolating against right-handed arms throwing Pepiot’s three key pitches (fastball, slider, changeup). Henderson possesses a .330 average on the season against righties when filtering other pitches out.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Gary Sanchez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year's 90-mph average.. There has been a significant improvement in Gary Sanchez's launch angle from last season's 15.8° to 19° this season.. In the last week's worth of games, Gary Sanchez has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 16.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 10.1°.. In notching a 24.200 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Gary Sanchez has performed in the 79th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Westburg is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jordan Westburg has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .222 figure is quite a bit lower than his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Jordan Westburg's 12.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 8.9°, Junior Caminero has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.8° angle over the past 7 days.. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 31.5% to 38%.. Junior Caminero's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to measure power) has been 116.5 mph this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

When estimating his home run talent, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ramon Laureano is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Ramon Laureano will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Ranking in the 88th percentile, Ramon Laureano has notched a .333 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.. Ranking in the 92nd percentile, Ramon Laureano has notched a .332 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's game.. Colton Cowser's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 13.3% on the season to 26.3% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. By putting up a .330 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Colton Cowser is ranked in the 76th percentile.

When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game.. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Brandon Lowe's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92-mph now compared to just 89.8-mph then.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #6 stadium in the league for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the highest humidity on the slate today at 82%.. Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.. Danny Jansen has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.6% seasonal rate to 13.6% in the last two weeks.. Danny Jansen's launch angle in recent games (27.7° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 24° seasonal figure.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's game.. Ryan O'Hearn will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Ryan O'Hearn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 40.8% to 49%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Yandy Diaz has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.4% seasonal rate to 26.3% over the past week.. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (6.3°) is a significant increase over his 1.3° angle last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup.. Gunnar Henderson will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Despite posting a .333 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had bad variance on his side given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .360.