New York @ Kansas City picks

The Yankees face the Royals tonight, and Kris Bubic has dominated so far. But Aaron Judge has torn the cover off the baseball with Bubic on the bump, as he’s 5-for-8 lifetime with a home run.

Kris Bubic is firmly in the Cy Young conversation, as he should be, with eye-popping metrics at every turn. His chase rate (32.1%), whiff rate (29.8%), and K rate (9.44 K/9) rank in the top 25% of baseball, while his barrel rate (4.2%) and hard-hit rate allowed (31.6%) are in the top 20%. By any metric, Bubic has been elite, and I’m backing him to do something he’s done in all but three starts this season: record at least 17 outs. Bubic is at home. His elite metrics have been even more impressive in the comforts of Kauffman Stadium. In five home starts, he’s averaged outings of 6.4 innings with an ERA of 1.38. All improvements over his road splits. We’re not asking for a ton of improvement from his prior start this season that came on the road against the Yankees to cash this best bet. However, based on almost any underlying metric, we’re likely to get it.

When estimating his home run ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an edge in today's matchup.. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in the majors.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Wells ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kris Bubic.

When estimating his batting average talent, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run skill, Salvador Perez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 93.8-mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in the majors.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.