The New York Yankees will look to continue their dominance over the Kansas City Royals when the pair continue a series Wednesday night.
The Yankees have won six straight over the Royals as well as eight of their last ten. Tonight likely represents the best chance for the Royals to break that streak with ace Kris Bubic on the mound. We expect a strong outing from him as well.
My Yankees vs. Royals predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Wednesday, June 11.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
My Yankees vs Royals best bet: Kris Bubic Over 16.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
What more can you say about Kris Bubic so far this season?
He’s firmly in the Cy Young conversation, as he should be, with eye-popping metrics at every turn. His chase rate (32.1%), whiff rate (29.8%), and K rate (9.44 K/9) rank in the top 25% of baseball, while his barrel rate (4.2%) and hard-hit rate allowed (31.6%) are in the top 20%. By any metric, Bubic has been elite, and I’m backing him to do something he’s done in all but three starts this season: record at least 17 outs.
One of those three times he was unsuccessful in that task this season came against this same New York Yankees team. Bubic went 5.1 innings against the Bronx Boys in New York, which meant he came up one out short of cashing this number. We expect things to be a little different tonight from that three-earned run showing in late April. Why? Well, let’s look back at that start for some actionable insights.
For the most part, Bubic got what he wanted. His 14 swings and misses led all pitchers, including the one he opposes tonight, Clarke Schmidt (9). A big part of why Bubic wasn’t able to exceed this outs number revolved almost exclusively around what happened in the fourth inning.
Oswald Peraza got a two-out single that extended the inning to three more batters and nearly 20 more pitches. Additionally, the Yankees scored two runs via a Cody Bellinger double. The hit that made that happen, though, was nothing more than luck with an expected batting average of .120 and exit velocity of 72 mph.
Of course, the gist of this handicap isn’t simply reduced to one whimsical play, but it does add some insight, as one lucky hit not happening could have made this outs number different. It is likely 17.5, which has been the season standard for Bubic. Our handicap synopsis resolves around mostly this:
The Yankees hitters put pressure on opposing pitchers with hard-hit balls. Few do a better job in baseball of inducing soft contact than Bubic, with a barrel rate and hard-hit rate in the top 25% of the sport. Knowledge gained in the prior meeting, along with the data, will likely mean that Bubic relies on his sweeper and changeup more rather than the fastball that Yankees hitters have been destroying.
That latter one has produced a batting average of .100 and a whiff rate of 38%. Depending on what Yankees lineup we see today, it could have up to six players in it with a whiff rate above league average when facing a changeup from southpaws. Bubic should be able to lean on this early and often to extend outings.
Oh yeah, as a last saving grace, Bubic is at home. His elite metrics have been even more impressive in the comforts of Kauffman Stadium. In five home starts, he’s averaged outings of 6.4 innings with an ERA of 1.38. All improvements over his road splits. We’re not asking for a ton of improvement from his prior start this season that came on the road against the Yankees to cash this best bet. However, based on almost any underlying metric, we’re likely to get it.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Kris Bubic Over 16.5 outs
Paul Goldschmidt 1+ hit
Jonathan India 1+ walk
We’ll get another noncorrelation boost here by pairing a Yankees hitter to get a knock off Bubic with our best bet. We waxed poetically last week about Goldschmidt and today, we’ll stop short of doing some of that and just note that he leads the entire majors in batting averages against lefties at .441.
We’ll finish things off with Jonathan India to draw a walk. At +155 there’s nice value here with my projected price of +134. India enters today with a walk rate just outside the 70th percentile of baseball and will face a pitcher in Clark Schmidt who has had some issues with free passes from time-to-time this season.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Kansas City +100
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Kansas City +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Royals trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
How to watch Yankees vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Clarke Schmidt (2-3, 4.04 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Kris Bubic (5-3, 1.43 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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