San Diego @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Luis Arraez has been pinch hit for 12% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Jose Quintana throws from, Luis Arraez will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana today. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive ability to be a .327, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .039 difference between that figure and his actual .288 wOBA.

Hitters such as Rhys Hoskins with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Stephen Kolek who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. Rhys Hoskins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Over the past two weeks, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 28.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 19.9°. Rhys Hoskins's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 37.9% to 44.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill as the 18th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 45.7% to 54.5%. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 54.5% on the season to 66.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. Caleb Durbin will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Caleb Durbin has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.3-mph to 87.1-mph in the last week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Caleb Durbin's true offensive talent to be a .294, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 disparity between that mark and his actual .270 wOBA.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. This season, Gavin Sheets has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.9 mph compared to last year's 90.8 mph mark. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Gavin Sheets's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 100-mph of late. Gavin Sheets has notched a .346 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 10th-best hitter in MLB. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an edge in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has experienced some negative variance given the .034 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .377.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 39.6% on the season to 57.1% in the last week. When it comes to his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .242 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .274. With a 1.75 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jake Cronenworth has shown favorable plate discipline, placing in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's matchup. Brice Turang hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Sal Frelick is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Sal Frelick will have an advantage today. Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. Isaac Collins will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Isaac Collins has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.2-mph EV. Over the past two weeks, Isaac Collins's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. William Contreras will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Manny Machado's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand in today's game. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Manny Machado's launch angle this season (16°) is a considerable increase over his 12.5° angle last year.

Christian Yelich's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Christian Yelich will have the upper hand in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today. Christian Yelich will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Elias Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (18°) is quite a bit higher than his 7.3° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Jose Iglesias will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana today. Placing in the 82nd percentile, Jose Iglesias has posted a .338 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season. Placing in the 99th percentile, Jose Iglesias has put up a .315 batting average since the start of last season.

Brandon Lockridge's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Lockridge will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today. Brandon Lockridge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.9 ft/sec this year, Brandon Lockridge is remarkably fast.