San Diego @ San Francisco picks

Merrill draws a tough matchup on Thursday in the form of veteran lefty Robbie Ray, who’s tied for the third most wins (7-1), while putting up a stellar 2.43 ERA. Merrill’s .279 average against lefties is by far his lowest split in all categories, as opposed to his scorching .344 clip against righties. Ray doesn’t completely shut down left-handed bats, but opponents are hitting just .228 against him on the year. Merrill has never faced Ray in his career, so that should be an advantage for the pitcher, especially as accomplished as the Giants’ starter.

Manny Machado is having a wonderful season for the San Diego Padres, batting .314 with seven home runs and 29 RBIs. While the power numbers aren’t outstanding, it’s common knowledge that Machado can go deep at any given moment. He has a lot of pop in his bat. Machado swings it extremely well against southpaws, too. He’s batting .317 with lefties on the hill, and he’s slugged five of his bombs off them. Ray is a tough matchup, but there’s a clear track record of success here. 

Robbie Ray missed a lot of last season due to injury, but he’s now back and better than ever. The veteran is 7-1 in 12 starts with a 2.43 ERA so far, striking out 78 hitters in just 70.1 innings of work. Ray has always had swing and miss stuff, and it’s on full display right now. The lefty has collected 7+ Ks in six of his last seven outings. Ray struck out nine Miami Marlins hitters in his last appearance on May 31 — a seven-inning, one-run masterpiece. The 33-year-old is striking out 27.3% of the batters he’s facing. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Robbie Ray today.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Heliot Ramos has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Heliot Ramos will hold that advantage in today's game.

Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Wilmer Flores will hold that advantage in today's game.. Wilmer Flores's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 43.6% on the season to 54.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Checking in at the 83rd percentile for power, Wilmer Flores has hit 29.1 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Manny Machado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today's game.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 18th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 45.7% to 52.9%.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Martin Maldonado will have the handedness advantage against Robbie Ray in today's game.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.. Since the start of last season, Martin Maldonado's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 76th percentile at 93.9 mph.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Robbie Ray today.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.. Gavin Sheets has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last year's 87.8-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Manny Machado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today's game.. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game.. Dominic Smith will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.9) suggests that Dominic Smith has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 11.7 actual HR/600.. Dominic Smith's 10.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.