Cleveland @ New York picks

New York has the lowest chase rate in the league, with one of the lowest whiff rates as well. We already saw this in the first matchup this season when Ortiz had his shortest outing of the season at home against the Yankees, allowing four earned runs and, most notably, five walks. The righty was so inefficient that he had his highest pitch count of the season in that start with 104. Clarke Schmidt has been slightly unlucky this season, with an expected ERA nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA. That suggests room for positive regression. His cutter-heavy approach is a tough matchup for the Guardians, with five starters in today's lineup hitting below the league average against cutters. Schmidt's top-20% whiff rate and ability to limit hard contact (top-30% in hard-hit rate allowed) align well against Cleveland's offense.

The alarm bells are going off for Cleveland Guardians starter Luis Ortiz against left-handed bats. He’s posted bad underlying metrics against lefties all season long, and they’ve gotten progressively worse. He has thrown more balls than strikes to lefties over the last month. He’s also allowed an absurdly high 21.6% barrel rate, 6.15 expected ERA, and has permitted line drives at a well above average clip. Put, he’s given up a ton of good, hard contact. Ortiz primarily throws fastballs, sliders, and sinkers. That pitch mix plays nicely into the hands of Cody Bellinger. Bellinger is hitting .273 with a 20.6% barrel rate against those three pitches over the past month. He’s hitting for average and, as usual, a lot of power to boot. This is a nice matchup for him to make noise at the plate.

Trent Grisham projects as the 19th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Trent Grisham will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Luis Ortiz today... and the cherry on top, Ortiz has a large platoon split.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Trent Grisham projects as the 19th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Trent Grisham will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Bo Naylor will have an edge in today's matchup.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Bo Naylor's launch angle this season (25.6°) is a significant increase over his 19.5° angle last year.. Compared to his seasonal average of 25.6°, Bo Naylor has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.9° angle over the last 14 days.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Luis Ortiz today... and the cherry on top, Ortiz has a large platoon split.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Trent Grisham projects as the 19th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Trent Grisham will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Cody Bellinger will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

When assessing his home run ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. In MLB, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Ben Rice will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Ben Rice pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.