It's round two for the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians as the Yankees look to extend their latest win streak to three games.
It played the part of streak ender last night with a hard-fought win over the Guardians and a cashed our best bet. Tonight, the Yankees will face a tremendous pitching matchup, and we are expecting a big win because of it.
My Guardians vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Wednesday, June 4th.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105 at Caesars)
For a moment, let's put aside New York Yankees pitcher Clarke Schmidt.
We'll come back to him in a bit, but I want to talk about the most significant mismatch of this game first. That's the Yankees' hitters going against Cleveland Guardians righty Luis Ortiz. I'm not a fan of him overall, but this matchup tonight is a fairly disastrous one. That's why we're taking the Yankees plus-money price on the run-line as our best bet.
This isn't the Yankees team of last season. That one had a ton of all-or-nothing swings in the lineup and ranked highly in both chase rate and swing rate. The approach has completely changed in what was necessary to supplement a similar level of offense after the absences of Juan Soto (and, for the moment, Giancarlo Stanton) from the lineup.
Now, New York has the lowest chase rate in the league, with one of the lowest whiff rates as well. That patient approach isn't ideal for Ortiz, who relies on chase to get outs and, if he doesn't get it, sees other parts of his pitching game exposed.
We already saw this in the first matchup this season when Ortiz had his shortest outing of the season at home against the Yankees, allowing four earned runs and, most notably, five walks.
The righty was so inefficient that he had his highest pitch count of the season in that start with 104. Why? The answer is simple. He didn't get chased, and things fell apart around him. New York got free runners to put pressure on Ortiz.
At that point, he finally had to make pitches in the zone, and the potent Yankees offense did what it usually does.
A parallel scenario unfolded against the San Diego Padres. Ortiz gave up seven earned runs in just 4.2 innings there. I'm inclined to believe that it wasn't coincidental that the same Padres team shares a very similar hitting profile as the Yankees. With the Yankees' top-five barrel rate and hard-hit rate, Ortiz is poised for another rough night. Just like he had in the first matchup
Now, back to Clarke Schmidt.
He's been slightly unlucky this season, with an expected ERA nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA. That suggests room for positive regression. His cutter-heavy approach is a tough matchup for the Guardians, with five starters in today's lineup hitting below the league average against cutters. Schmidt's top-20% whiff rate and ability to limit hard contact (top-30% in hard-hit rate allowed) align well against Cleveland's offense.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees -1.5
Paul Goldschmidt RBI
This is a simple same-game parlay that follows similar logic as our best bet above.
Paul Goldschmidt has the luxury of being behind the two biggest walk rates in the lineup in Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. I suspect that Ortiz will try to get some chase from those bats like he did in the first matchup.
And, just like the first matchup, I suspect he'll struggle to get that chase. That should leave Goldschmidt with multiple chances to visit the plate with runners on base. When he does that, he'll see a pitcher whom he's batted .700 against in his ten career head-to-head matchups.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland (+155) | New York (-190)
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
How to watch Guardians vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, YES |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Luis Ortiz (2-6, 4.40 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Clarke Schmidt (2-2, 3.95 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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