San Diego @ San Francisco picks

The San Diego Padres are also rolling, with Manny Machado having lots of success at the plate. The veteran is hitting .308, and although he’s only smacked seven bombs, tonight’s matchup heavily plays in his favor. The Padres begin an important NL West series with the San Francisco Giants in the Bay Area, and Logan Webb gets the call for the hosts. Machado has terrorized him over the years, going 13 for 35 (.371) with one home run. Machado just went deep on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he clubbed three long balls last season against the Giants as well. Machado could stay hot tonight.

Machado has a 13-for-35 career record against the San Francisco Giants righty, with a homer, a double, and five RBIs. Coming off an impressive May where he posted a .340 batting average and a .954 OPS, Machado has served up 1+ hit in eight of his past nine games. He’s made good contact on his travels this year, notching 34 of his 65 hits on the road, and I’m banking on that trumping Webb’s steady 2.82 ERA. Peeling back the numbers a little, Webb has given up 17 hits and nine runs across his last two outings, so that the early-season freshness may be wearing off. If he’s short of his best again here, the San Diego Padres have the bats to take advantage. Machado stands out as the danger man, and I love this price for 2+ bases.

Kolek’s ERA has ballooned to 7.71 while giving up a .300 batting average. Kolek just doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss in his game at this point and is getting hit hard as a result. He ranks in the Bottom 2% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That also means not a ton of strikeouts, ranking in the 27th percentile. Now, the Giants aren’t exactly world beaters at the plate, but they have been much better when playing in front of the home crowd at Oracle Park. San Francisco ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in OPS, and 13th in wRC+ when playing at home this season. I like the Giants' chances of extending Kolek’s slump and tagging him with a few runs in tonight’s matchup.  Give me Over 2.5 earned runs allowed for Kolek, something he has done in three straight starts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as the game's 9th-best home run hitter.. Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Matt Chapman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.. Wilmer Flores will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball batters like Willy Adames usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the handedness advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's matchup.. Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Mike Yastrzemski are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as the game's 9th-best home run hitter.. Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Matt Chapman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

The San Francisco Giants projected lineup projects as the 5th-strongest of the day in terms of overall batting skill.. The San Francisco Giants have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oracle Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for batting average.. The shallowest RF fences in the majors are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as the game's 9th-best home run hitter.. Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Matt Chapman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

When assessing his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball batters like Willy Adames usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, LaMonte Wade Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup.. LaMonte Wade Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like LaMonte Wade Jr. tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.. Wilmer Flores will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.