Pittsburgh @ San Diego picks

Mitch Keller leans heavily on two pitches in the fastball and sweeper. Machado will have the benefit of batting behind two players who crush these pitches. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads things off with a .388 batting average against the fastball and an expected batting average that's even higher. Not to be outdone, Luis Arraez has the third-highest batting average among Padre players against the sweeper, and we are well aware of his heavily-documented overall hitting talent.

Over the last 15 days, the Padres are just 28th in the majors in OPS (.633). They'll be at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight to host Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Keller has pitched to a 2.98 ERA with a 3.08 FIP over his last nine starts. The Friars respond with Nick Pivetta who has a 2.72 ERA with an OBA of .192 through 10 starts. He'll stymy a Pirates lineup that is 27th in the majors in OPS (.644) with that number dipping to .610 on the road. 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's game.. Compared to last season, Xander Bogaerts has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 50.8% this season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. In terms of his home runs, Andrew McCutchen has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.3.

When assessing his home run talent, Alexander Canario ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Alexander Canario's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (27° in the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 17.4° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Nick Pivetta in this game.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 7th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. In terms of his home runs, Andrew McCutchen has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.3.

Henry Davis is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Henry Davis's speed has gotten better this year. His 27.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.18 ft/sec now.