Pittsburgh @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95.2-mph over the past two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke'Bryan Hayes's true offensive ability to be a .299, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .041 deviation between that mark and his actual .258 wOBA.

Petco Park profiles as the #23 stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jackson Merrill has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 19.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Tyler Wade will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Tyler Wade tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller. Tyler Wade will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Tommy Pham tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Tommy Pham's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 10.5%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive skill to be a .305, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .069 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .236 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Batters such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. By putting up a .280 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Isiah Kiner-Falefa grades out in the 86th percentile. Ranking in the 91st percentile, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has posted a .293 batting average this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. When it comes to plate discipline, Andrew McCutchen's talent is quite good, sporting a 1.37 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 89th percentile.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Gavin Sheets's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 108.2-mph of late. Sporting a .361 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Gavin Sheets grades out in the 85th percentile.

The #8 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Elias Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Elias Diaz has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 4.3% to 20%. There has been a significant improvement in Elias Diaz's launch angle from last season's 7.3° to 16.4° this season. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 15.5% on the season to 33.3% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to last season, Xander Bogaerts has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 50.8% this season. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Xander Bogaerts has experienced some negative variance this year. His .299 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. As it relates to his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .243 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .277.

Petco Park profiles as the #23 stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph mark last season has dropped to 84.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Compared to last season, Manny Machado has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 46.8% to 52.1% this season.

Spencer Horwitz's batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an edge today. Sporting a .333 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Spencer Horwitz is ranked in the 77th percentile for offensive ability.

Henry Davis is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Henry Davis's speed has gotten better this year. His 27.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.18 ft/sec now.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Adam Frazier will have an edge in today's matchup. Last season, Adam Frazier had an average launch angle of 11.9° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.4°.

Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Alexander Canario's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (27° in the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 17.4° seasonal angle. Alexander Canario has been hot lately, notching a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) over the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.328) may lead us to conclude that Alexander Canario has had bad variance on his side this year with his .295 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game. Oneil Cruz has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.7% rate last season to 22.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Nick Pivetta in this game. Bryan Reynolds has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 14 days.