San Francisco @ Detroit picks
Comerica Park
SF vs DET Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Kenny Ducey
Betting Analyst
The San Francisco Giants aren't exactly hitting for power, checking in with an ISO just over .140 in the last two weeks of play. They haven’t enjoyed facing pitchers who will bait them into doing so, either, ranking 27th in OPS to fly-ball pitchers vs. third against ground-ballers. This is a significant disparity, and while their strikeout and walk numbers are relatively solid, there isn't enough to support their offence.
Strikeouts Thrown

Jack Flaherty o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Projection 6.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jack Flaherty projects as the 20th-best SP in Major League Baseball right now when it comes to his strikeout talent, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Throwing 94.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jack Flaherty falls in the 87th percentile.. With 6 batters who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Jack Flaherty should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Considering that flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball batters, Jack Flaherty and his 33.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position today being matched up with 4 opposing FB batters.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Jack Flaherty will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Wilmer Flores o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Wilmer Flores is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team on the slate today.. This season, Wilmer Flores has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.7 mph compared to last year's 87.6 mph mark.
Total RBIs

Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team on the slate today.
Outs Recorded

Logan Webb o18.5 Outs Recorded (+120)
Projection 19.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Logan Webb as the 6th-best SP in MLB right now.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan Webb to throw 100 pitches in today's game (most on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The Detroit Tigers have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games. Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Comerica Park has the 2nd-deepest centerfield fences among all major league parks.
Total Bases

Jung Hoo Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee as the 15th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.. Jung Hoo Lee is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Jung Hoo Lee will have an edge in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Casey Schmitt o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team on the slate today.. Casey Schmitt's 94.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.. With a .319 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Casey Schmitt finds himself in the 90th percentile.