Los Angeles @ Cleveland picks

Obviously, Shohei Ohtani & Co. could make Gavin Williams' life immediately miserable and destroy this wager from word one. But the Dodgers don't have a starter listed and Williams has looked better of late, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of his last four outings, culminating in six strong vs. the Twins last time out. It's about value, and L.A. is a middling 13-12 away from Dodger Stadium while Cleveland is 14-8 at Progressive Field. With the Dodgers also playing late on Sunday, I like this number a ton.

Ohtani is heating up with 19 extra-base hits and a 1.133 OPS across his past 24 games. He’s also posted a monster .456 wOBA and .397 ISO against right-handed pitchers since joining the Dodgers last year. Cleveland is starting Gavin Williams, and he has surrendered a healthy 11.1 barrel percentage and 42.1 hard-hit rate, with opposing hitters posting a solid .257 batting average and .336 BABIP against him.

Freddie Freeman currently leads the National League in both batting average (.357) and OPS (1.063). He’s already compiled 24 extra-base hits over his first 42 games and has 2+ total bases in 21 of those contests. He's always been an absolute monster against right-handed pitching, and that will serve him well against Guardians SP Gavin Williams.

When estimating his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 6th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage over Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.. Batters such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 17th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Teoscar Hernandez has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. By putting up a .348 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Teoscar Hernandez has performed in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability.

When estimating his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 6th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage over Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.. Batters such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Bo Naylor has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Bo Naylor will hold the platoon advantage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.. Extreme groundball batters like Bo Naylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Michael Conforto will have the upper hand in today's game.. Michael Conforto has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Michael Conforto's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 40.6% to 48.5%.. Michael Conforto has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .167 rate is a good deal lower than his .213 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Gabriel Arias has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Gabriel Arias will hold that advantage in today's game.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The 6th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Progressive Field.. Shohei Ohtani will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams in today's game.. Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 102.2-mph average to last season's 99-mph figure.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 9th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage in today's game.