Baltimore @ Boston picks

Red Sox starter Brayan Bello is in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA (5.59) and xBA (.302) while Orioles lefty Cade Povich has an xERA of 5.84 across eight starts. Boston is fifth in the majors in OPS (.776) against southpaws while Baltimore has an OPS of .735 versus righties. Both lineups strike out a ton but when they make contact, they crush the ball. The O's are seventh in barrel rate, and fourth in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The BoSox are in the Top-3 in all three of those metrics. Given that neither starting pitcher generate many whiffs, we should see plenty of offense. 

Alex Bregman has been all the Red Sox could’ve asked for and more since signing with the ball club in free agency. He’s hitting .297 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 50 contests and will face the Orioles’ Cade Povich tonight. Bregman is just 1-for-5 off Povich lifetime, but the third baseman is raking against left-handed pitchers. He has a .364 average with southpaws on the mound. Although just one of his homers is against lefties, it’s hard to ignore his success here. Povich has already allowed eight bombs this season. He hasn’t gone deep in six games, but I could see Bregman taking Povich yard in tonight’s matchup. 

Devers is one of the most feared hitters in baseball and has been walked in 12 of his last 16 contests. He's now tied for second in the majors with 39 walks through 51 games. Devers and the Red Sox are at home tonight against Baltimore and struggling southpaw Cade Povich. Povich has issued 11 walks in 26 1/3 innings over his last five starts. Baltimore's relievers have also struggled with their control, averaging 4.48 walks per 9 innings. 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello today... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Cedric Mullins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the game.. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Gunnar Henderson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.