New York @ Boston props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 2nd-lowest level on the schedule today at 49°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jarren Duran has exhibited poor plate discipline this year, ranking in the 21st percentile with a 3.87 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Brett Baty has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brett Baty has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 5.5% rate last year to 16.9% this year. Brett Baty has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 99.9-mph in the last week's worth of games. Brett Baty's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 18.6% on the season to 31.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Kristian Campbell's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kristian Campbell is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the league. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Juan Soto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 94-mph mark.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Francisco Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 50%. Francisco Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 99.7-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Nick Sogard pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Nick Sogard will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Nick Sogard has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .278 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Starling Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Starling Marte will have an edge in today's game. Starling Marte has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Nimmo's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, going from 38.9% on the season to 50% over the past week.

Mark Vientos is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Mark Vientos will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's game. Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Mark Vientos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph recently.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the game. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Pete Alonso will have an edge in today's game. Pete Alonso pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Luis Torrens will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Luis Torrens has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Luis Torrens has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .326 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .375 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Luis Torrens's 11.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 82nd percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luisangel Acuna in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Luisangel Acuna will have an advantage today. Luisangel Acuna hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Luisangel Acuna has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 3.3° compared to his seasonal mark of -3.3°.

The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyrone Taylor will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Tyrone Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Tyrone Taylor has compiled a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

The #4 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game. Carlos Narvaez has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Jeff McNeil has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.