New York @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
NYM vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Mets righty Tylor Megill has stumbled across his past four starts with a 7.23 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he’s also pitched poorly on the road dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign with respective 5.89 and 1.67 marks across 107 innings. It’s a different story for the Red Sox. Boston lefty Garrett Crochet has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts (2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP), and I particularly appreciate that his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate are down for a second consecutive season.


The Walker Buehler ejection has changed the landscape of this game. He's making posts on X and IG about getting back at Francisco Lindor, who was calling for the Boston Red Sox pitcher to get tossed. So how does this affect Tylor Megill? He was already projecting +EV for this Under 4.5 hits at 4.23, per THE BAT, but there could be some HBPs today. If the Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) retaliate, Megill might have to answer, which could get him tossed if warnings are thrown out. This ejection is not priced into THE BAT’s numbers, so it is just some added value. There is also a chance of rain, which could abbreviate Megill’s outing, and the wind is blowing in. This should help our MLB picks if this turns out to be an unaffected start.





