New York @ Boston picks

Mets righty Tylor Megill has stumbled across his past four starts with a 7.23 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he’s also pitched poorly on the road dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign with respective 5.89 and 1.67 marks across 107 innings. It’s a different story for the Red Sox. Boston lefty Garrett Crochet has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts (2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP), and I particularly appreciate that his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate are down for a second consecutive season.

The Walker Buehler ejection has changed the landscape of this game. He's making posts on X and IG about getting back at Francisco Lindor, who was calling for the Boston Red Sox pitcher to get tossed. So how does this affect Tylor Megill? He was already projecting +EV for this Under 4.5 hits at 4.23, per THE BAT, but there could be some HBPs today. If the Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) retaliate, Megill might have to answer, which could get him tossed if warnings are thrown out. This ejection is not priced into THE BAT’s numbers, so it is just some added value. There is also a chance of rain, which could abbreviate Megill’s outing, and the wind is blowing in. This should help our MLB picks if this turns out to be an unaffected start.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. The 2nd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park.. Juan Soto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 94-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Brett Baty has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Brett Baty has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 5.5% rate last year to 16.9% this year.. Brett Baty has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 99.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.. Brett Baty's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 18.6% on the season to 31.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park.. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Francisco Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 50%.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for run-scoring.. Carlos Narvaez has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Carlos Narvaez has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days.