Detroit @ Colorado picks

Six of Spencer Torkelson's 10 homers have come on the road, and he’s also gone deep five times against lefties. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound for the first game of this doubleheader. He has an ERA over five (8.53 at Coors) and two of his three homers surrendered have come at home in just 12 2/3 innings. 

Kyle Freeland has been roughed up this season to the tune of an 8.53 ERA across a pair of home starts, and he’ll face a strong Detroit lineup this afternoon. The Detroit Tigers enter with a fifth-ranked .345 wOBA and fourth-ranked .194 ISO against southpaws for the campaign. Plus, the soft-tossing lefty has pitched fewer than six frames in three of his past four starts, and he’s allowing a healthy 42.1% hard-hit rate and sports negative pitch values on two of his three most frequent offerings, per FanGraphs.

Let’s attack the doubleheader first. Kyle Freeland will need to pitch a little more than usual as the Game 1 starter in front of an awful Colorado Rockies bullpen. He projects for nearly 18 outs so he will see plenty of batters. The last time I bet on a Colorado pitcher in a doubleheader was German Marquez, who had to eat some extra outs despite pitching poorly. THE BAT projects this as one of the best +EV walk props today and the lefty has hit this Over in two of his last four starts after some unsustainable walk rates to begin the year with zero free passes issued across his first three starts.

When estimating his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an advantage today.. Extreme flyball batters like Mickey Moniak tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.

Michael Toglia is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Michael Toglia has big-time power (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (32.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Casey Mize is a pitch-to-contact type (4th percentile K%) — great news for Toglia.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Kerry Carpenter may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.. Kerry Carpenter has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 16.1% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Kerry Carpenter may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.. Kerry Carpenter has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 16.1% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the last 14 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an advantage today.. Extreme flyball batters like Mickey Moniak tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Kerry Carpenter may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.. Kerry Carpenter has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 16.1% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 7th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Kyle Freeland will hold the platoon advantage against Zach McKinstry in today's game.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 5th-best among all the teams on the slate today.. Zach McKinstry will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Zach McKinstry has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Riley Greene is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Riley Greene has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.