Washington @ Cincinnati props

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup predicts the 4th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 57°. Typically, bats like Amed Rosario who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Lodolo. Amed Rosario will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. With a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Amed Rosario is ranked in the 22nd percentile for hitting ability. Amed Rosario's 4.6% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) grades out in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. CJ Abrams has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7% rate last season to 12.1% this year.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. In the league, Great American Ball Park's right field dimensions are the 8th-shallowest. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a huge platoon split (Trevor Williams) today. Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Trevor Williams.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. In the past 7 days, Nathaniel Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.5-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Dunn in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Blake Dunn has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Blake Dunn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Blake Dunn has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 98.7-mph. Blake Dunn's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, going from 44.8% on the season to 57.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best batter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP skill. James Wood is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. James Wood has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 10.7% rate last season to 18.8% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Dylan Crews will have an edge today. Dylan Crews has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Over the last 14 days, Dylan Crews has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 15.5% to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jose Tena has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. In the past week, Jose Tena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph lately. Ranking in the 89th percentile, Jose Tena sits with a .338 BABIP since the start of last season.

Considering Trevor Williams's huge platoon split, Jake Fraley will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Fraley has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 87.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 85.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Matt McLain has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Matt McLain will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Matt McLain's launch angle lately (28° in the past 7 days) is significantly higher than his 17.4° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Tyler Stephenson will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Tyler Stephenson's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 76th percentile at 93.8 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Gavin Lux is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. In the league, Great American Ball Park's right field dimensions are the 8th-shallowest. Given Trevor Williams's huge platoon split, Gavin Lux will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Lux stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Jacob Young will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Jacob Young has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 89.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 86.4-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.278) may lead us to conclude that Jacob Young has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .251 actual batting average.

Josh Bell has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Josh Bell's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (19.7°) is a significant increase over his 12° figure last year. Josh Bell has been unlucky this year, posting a .226 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .089 gap.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. TJ Friedl will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Williams in today's matchup... and even better, Williams has a huge platoon split. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so TJ Friedl can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and TJ Friedl will hold that advantage in today's game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Riley Adams will have an advantage today. Riley Adams has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.236) suggests that Riley Adams has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .218 actual batting average.

Alex Call is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league. Alex Call will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo today. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Ranking in the 98th percentile, Alex Call has notched a .403 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

In the league, Great American Ball Park's right field dimensions are the 8th-shallowest. Tyler Callihan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams in today's game... and moreover, Williams has a huge platoon split. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tyler Callihan stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Tyler Callihan will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Santiago Espinal has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Santiago Espinal will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Sporting a 1.96 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Santiago Espinal has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 78th percentile.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Spencer Steer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Spencer Steer has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.4% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week. Spencer Steer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 42.2% on the season to 60% in the last week's worth of games.

Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league. Jose Trevino will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jose Trevino has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 92-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Over the last week, Jose Trevino's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%. When it comes to plate discipline, Jose Trevino's skill is quite impressive, putting up a 1.95 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 79th percentile.