San Diego @ Pittsburgh picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates couldn't even win when Paul Skenes was pitching, now they trot out Mitch Keller against a very good offensive team in San Diego. Keller has given up plenty of contact this season, and the Padres' offense is starting to find a rhythm again, putting up 12 runs across their last 2 games. I'll take the better team here, with the better pitcher on the bump. 

San Diego’s strikeout rate has been on the rise (22%) across the Padres' past seven games, and that opens the door for Mitch Keller and his sweeper to rack up a few strikeouts tonight. Keller doesn’t have the gas to blow anyone away, but he’s struck out eight per nine over his career at PNC Park behind a devastating sweeper with a 33% whiff rate against righties. Keller should have a long enough leash to benefit from at least five Padres boasting whiff rates over 25%, which should allow for at least five Keller strikeouts tonight.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Manny Machado has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.9% seasonal rate to 20.6% in the last 14 days.. Manny Machado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. In the last two weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.4-mph over the course of the season to 101.3-mph in recent games.. Based on Statcast data, Fernando Tatis Jr. grades out in the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 31.800.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. PNC Park projects as the #9 venue in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Dylan Cease in today's game.

Enmanuel Valdez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. PNC Park projects as the #9 venue in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Enmanuel Valdez's 29.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.7%.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. PNC Park projects as the #9 venue in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's matchup.. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.. Gavin Sheets has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .237 BA is quite a bit lower than his .248 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 7th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. PNC Park projects as the #9 venue in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Dylan Cease in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Compared to last season, Xander Bogaerts has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 49.4% this season.. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, increasing from 49.4% on the season to 55.6% over the past two weeks.

The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Martin Maldonado's 93.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to measure power) grades out in the 77th percentile since the start of last season.. Martin Maldonado's 17.7° launch angle (an advanced stat to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in the game: 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Compared to last season, Xander Bogaerts has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 49.4% this season.. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, increasing from 49.4% on the season to 55.6% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #9 park in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Manny Machado has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.9% seasonal rate to 20.6% in the last 14 days.. Manny Machado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.