Washington @ Cincinnati picks

Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker is coming off an ugly outing where he allowed six earned runs through five innings. However, he had a sizzling 1.39 ERA through his first five starts this year and I like him to start strong today. The Reds bat .222 against southpaws and they have an OPS of just .646 at home — the worst number in the NL. Meanwhile, the Nats plate 3.69 runs per game with an OPS of just .607 on the road. They'll find it tough to score early against Cincy ace Hunter Greene who has a 2.75 ERA with an xERA of 2.89 through six starts. 

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. James Wood will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's game.. James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dylan Crews has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Dylan Crews has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 15.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.. Dylan Crews has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 95.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage over Mitchell Parker in today's game.. Matt McLain has big-time HR ability (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitchell Parker struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for McLain.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. In the majors, Great American Ball Park's LF fences are the 7th-shallowest.. Elly De La Cruz has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (30.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitchell Parker is a pitch-to-contact type (10th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.

The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Josh Bell has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.. Josh Bell's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (21.2°) is significantly higher than his 12° mark last year.. Despite posting a .226 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Josh Bell has had some very poor luck given the .089 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP talent is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene today.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. James Wood will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's game.. James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage over Mitchell Parker in today's game.. Matt McLain has big-time HR ability (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitchell Parker struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for McLain.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. In the majors, Great American Ball Park's LF fences are the 7th-shallowest.. Elly De La Cruz has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (30.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitchell Parker is a pitch-to-contact type (10th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. TJ Friedl is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.. TJ Friedl pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and TJ Friedl will hold that advantage in today's matchup.