Busch Stadium
Caleb Durbin has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.
Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Quinn Priester in today's game. Bats such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Quinn Priester who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Since the start of last season, Nolan Gorman's 16.9% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Sal Frelick is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Sal Frelick will have an edge in today's matchup. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Sal Frelick tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Thomas Saggese has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Chourio has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 91.9-mph EV. Sporting a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jackson Chourio grades out in the 86th percentile.
Ranking in the 81st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.23 ft/sec this year, Isaac Collins is very fast.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray. William Contreras has recorded a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 82nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.6°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 23.3° mark in the past two weeks. Nolan Arenado has displayed strong plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 85th percentile with a 1.76 K/BB rate. Grading out in the 84th percentile, Nolan Arenado sits with a .272 batting average since the start of last season.
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Christian Yelich is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Christian Yelich will have an advantage in today's matchup. Batters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sonny Gray who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Christian Yelich has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 94.1-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Quinn Priester in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Brice Turang will have the upper hand in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Brice Turang usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray. Brice Turang has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 2.5% rate last year to 7.7% this year.
Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand in today's game. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.2°, Brendan Donovan has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 15° figure over the past week.
Rhys Hoskins's launch angle this season (25.8°) is a considerable increase over his 20.6° mark last year. Rhys Hoskins has been lifting the ball well recently, putting up a 26.1° launch angle over the last two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jordan Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jordan Walker has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.7-mph mark. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 37.9% on the season to 58.3% in the past week.
Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Quinn Priester in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, Victor Scott II has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.2° mark in the last 7 days.
Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Pedro Pages's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 84.6-mph over the course of the season to 87.4-mph in recent games. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.7°, Pedro Pages has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 42° angle in the last week.
Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray today. In the past week, Jake Bauers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.6-mph over the course of the season to 107.6-mph in recent games. In the last 7 days, Jake Bauers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jake Bauers ranks in the 96th percentile with a 22.2° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in baseball.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game. Masyn Winn has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 3.8% rate last season to 8.8% this season. Masyn Winn has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last season's 87.1-mph average. Using Statcast metrics, Masyn Winn grades out in the 86th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .274. Masyn Winn has recorded a .264 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willson Contreras has been unlucky given the .085 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.
