The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to build on their AL East lead as they begin a three-game set against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be heating up exiting the MLB All-Star break, and I believe that trend will continue tonight in a plus matchup against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon.
Find out why in my Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks below.
Blue Jays predictions for July 21
- Best bet
Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+105 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Rodon Under 4.5 strikeouts
(+400 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Victory for Vladdy!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at BetVictor)
The Vlad heater is coming. On the surface level, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s .278 batting average looks quite pedestrian for a man of his caliber.
However, when you look under the hood at his league-leading .315 xBA and his 92nd percentile power hitting metrics, the Toronto Blue Jays slugger is due for some positive progression in the second half of the season.
We may've seen a glimpse of that breakout coming in yesterday's win over the Giants when Guerrero Jr. reached base safely three times while homering in the win.
I think that continues tonight in a plus matchup against New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodon, whom Vlad has had immense success against throughout his career. He is 9-for-15 (.600) all-time against him, with four extra-base hits culminating in a 1.667 OPS.
A big reason for that is because of how well Guerrero Jr.’s batted ball profile matches up against Rodon.
The veteran lefty has good stuff, but ranks in the 41st and 50th percentiles in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, respectively. He’s also giving up far more hard contact to right-handed hitters than lefties, seeing his opponent's OPS climb from .507 to .612
That all bodes well for Guerrero Jr., who ranks in the 92nd percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate, while sporting a 13.2% barrel rate, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
So, whether it’s a multi-hit day or Vlad getting a hold of the baseball for extra bases, there’s a good path to him collecting multiple bags tonight.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 strikeouts
I’ll continue to back Guerrero and bet him to go Over 0.5 runs scored. Vlad gets on base and has guys hitting behind him to cash him in. He’s crossed home plate 15 times in his last 20 games.
For the final leg of my SGP, give me Under 4.5 strikeouts for Rodon. He’s got wipeout stuff, but the Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 16% and that’s giving us some good value on the Under.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Monday, July 21, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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