Michael Toglia Total Home Runs Props • Colorado

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup calls for the 2nd-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 48°. There has been a significant decline in Michael Toglia's launch angle from last season's 15.1° to 8.8° this year. When it comes to his home runs, Michael Toglia has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 29.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.4.