The Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks will continue a three-game set late tonight in Arizona.
The Astros got the best of things last night and we expect them to keep it rolling this evening with a strong pitching edge at play.
My Astros vs. Diamondbacks predictions are detailed here, as I bring you my MLB picks for the matchup on Tuesday, July 22.
Astros vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Astros vs Diamondbacks best bet: Framber Valdez to record a win (+165 at bet365)
Once the calendar flips to post-All-Star break, the Houston Astros have, for the better part of the past decade, started to click. This holds especially true for veteran starter Framber Valdez.
With a 10-4 record and a 2.75 ERA, he's having another impressive season. But if history is any indication, his best work tends to come after the break.
Just look at last year—he entered the All-Star break with an ERA just over 3.00, then posted a dominant 1.77 ERA in the second half. Following that pattern, I’m backing him to secure a win tonight.
Valdez has consistently gone deep into games, falling short of the required length to record a win only once all season, so durability isn’t a concern. The only real question is whether the Astros' offense can provide enough run support — and I believe they will.
Opposing Valdez is Eduardo Rodríguez, who has really struggled this season. His overall numbers essentially reflect who he is, and there’s no reason to expect a change, given that the expected metrics align closely with his performance.
Rodríguez has induced a fair amount of contact but has missed too many bats, with an expected batting average in the bottom 20% of the league.
The Astros lineup is full of players who excel at putting the ball into play, and they’ll enter this matchup among the top five in the league in BABIP.
While much of this handicap focuses on the pitcher Valdez is opposing, the situation and the Arizona Diamondbacks' tendency to hit ground balls at a slightly above-average rate put an elite groundball pitcher like Valdez in a great position tonight.
Backing the southpaw to get the win is easily the best bet on the board.
Astros vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Framber Valdez to record a win
Cam Smith over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI
Yainer Diaz over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI
With a pitcher on the mound who gives up too much contact, we’re taking a very simple approach and backing two players with strong profiles against lefties.
Both Cam Smith and Yainer Diaz will enter this game in the top 50 of batting average, expected batting average, and isolated power against southpaws, which puts them in a strong spot tonight to exploit weak pitching.
Astros vs Diamondbacks odds
Astros vs Diamondbacks live odds
Astros vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -130 | Arizona +105
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+134) | Arizona +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Diamondbacks trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 85 games (+15.90 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Astros vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, ARID |
| Astros starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.75 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Eduardo Rodriguez (3-6, 5.94 ERA) |
Astros vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Astros vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
