Atlanta @ Toronto Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 4th-worst field in baseball for RHB base hits. Spencer Schwellenbach will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 93.7-mph mark last season has decreased to 91-mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 14.5% to 7.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 4th-worst field in baseball for RHB base hits. Spencer Schwellenbach will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette today. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Bo Bichette's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 11.5% on the season to 5% in the past 7 days. Bo Bichette has notched a .281 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 16th percentile.

The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Nick Allen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Nick Allen generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kevin Gausman. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Nick Allen's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 62.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°. Nick Allen has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .209 BA is quite a bit lower than his .234 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Matt Olson will hold the platoon advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 14th-best hitter in MLB. Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Austin Riley's launch angle this year (28.7°) is significantly better than his 15.7° figure last year.

Rogers Centre grades out as the #24 stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays. Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate today). Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Michael Harris II today. There has been a significant decline in Michael Harris II's launch angle from last season's 7.4° to 1.7° this season.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Marcell Ozuna has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Sean Murphy hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Sean Murphy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 27.3% up to 27.3%.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Bats such as Anthony Santander with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Anthony Santander will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. In the past week's worth of games, Bryan De La Cruz has displayed impressive power, recording a a 15.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Ernie Clement will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ozzie Albies is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Ozzie Albies's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 14.2% to 26%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alan Roden in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Alan Roden will have an edge in today's matchup. Alan Roden will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Jarred Kelenic will hold the platoon advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's game. Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. In the past week, Jarred Kelenic's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10% up to 16.7%. Jarred Kelenic's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 20% on the season to 33.3% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Will Wagner will hold the platoon advantage over Spencer Schwellenbach today. Will Wagner hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Will Wagner will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 12° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Myles Straw will hold that advantage in today's game.

George Springer has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Stuart Fairchild has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.